It’s unbelievable how “experts” claim there’s no way stocks can crash because we don’t see it in the data. Here’s a WSJ article from June 2007 and the corresponding S&P chart. Notice phrases like “economy looking pretty strong,” “jobs ahead of expectations,” and “Goldilocks scenario.” Yet, labor productivity saw downward revisions, and inflation-adjusted wage growth was cut into negative territory for Q4 ’23. With US Q1 GDP growth at only 1.3% and Core PCE Price Inflation Index acutely up to 3.6%, we’re in the worst scenario for the Fed. Is a soft landing still possible in the US?
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It's unbelievable how "experts" claim there's no way stocks can crash because we don't see it in the data.
Here's a WSJ article from June 2007 and the corresponding chart of the S&P.
Notice: "economy looking pretty strong" "Jobs ahead of expectations" "goldilocks scenario" pic.twitter.com/GZao2RKyNk
— George Gammon (@GeorgeGammon) June 5, 2024
Shock of shocks – labor productivity sees downward revisions, but bigger story is on the compensation side: look at inflation-adjusted wage growth – it was cut by more than half for Q1 '24 and cut all the way into negative territory for Q4 '23! pic.twitter.com/xUmfXyWCue
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) June 6, 2024
Is soft-landing still possible in the US?
US Q1 GDP growth released on Thursday was only 1.3%, below the 1st reading of 1.6%.
At the same time, Core PCE Price Inflation Index was 3.6%, acutely up from 2% in Q4 2023.
This is the worst scenario for Fed.https://t.co/aBnhvZ5txE
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) June 6, 2024