Gold is predicted to reach $3,000 in 2025 amid changing consumer trends. These are the factors that could hurt or help gold prices the most next year…

By Peter Reagan

This week, Your News to Know covers:

• 2025 gold forecasts: the bearish, the bullish, and the really optimistic.
• Indians are changing how they invest in gold.
• 2025 for gold: headwinds or smooth sailing?

Gold could rise to $3,000 in 2025, though naysayers abound

End-of-the-year predictions are a dime a dozen, and the gold market is buzzing with both bullish and bearish projections about the price of gold in 2025 and beyond.

Here’s what top forecasters have to say…

A common theme in 2024 was how market prices were overblown and due a correction.

No dice.

With a remarkable all-time high near $2,800 back in October, and with the price of gold likely to close the year slightly above $2,600, this pessimism seems to be unwarranted, especially since prices hovered around $2,000 at the beginning of the year.

Despite gold’s stellar performance over the past twelve months, there has been a surprising amount of bearish sentiment. I might be slightly biased when I say gold has incurred more skepticism than Bitcoin back in December 2017.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20.

Commodities strategists at TD Securities predict gold prices are likely to remain within their current range for most of 2025, hitting a peak of $2,700 in Q2 and tapering off around $2,625 for the remainder of the year.

Gold prices may see a near-term correction as investors reduce their long positions, but persistent inflation and geopolitical instability will ensure that the yellow metal will not see a rout in 2025.

With the Biden administration’s last-ditch effort to increase government spending potentially leading to continued inflation, and the persistent economic uncertainty ushered by global instability, you might not be too surprised to know that confidence in gold is far from dipping.

Still, $2,700 is nowhere close to the more bullish $3,000 prediction offered by many – especially after this past year’s performance.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at broker FxPro., offers a similar perspective regarding gold prices – as quoted by Adriaan Kruger in the latter’s own discussion on the various perspectives on gold prices next year.

Bears are in control…

Kuptsikevich references the 4% dip in gold prices at the beginning of December as evidence of this. His outlook is based more on a self-fulfilling prophecy above anything else.

If bearish sentiment continues to dominate, Kuptsikevich predicts that a drop in gold prices below $2,600 could be approaching, leading to a short-term sale price at $2,525, and possibly triggering a move towards $2,400 per ounce.

But like other bearish takes out there, Kuptsikevich’s gives off more green than red.

He adds that a move to gold prices around $2,720, which could happen based on the persistent interest in gold evidenced over the past few weeks, could push gold as far up as $3,400 next year.

With this, he slightly exceeds what has been the dominant consensus that gold is likely to see $3,000 in 2025. 

With big names like Goldman Sachs and UBS sticking to their $3,000 per ounce forecast for 2025, we may soon see a 2025 gold bull.

Still, we’d caution relying on the gold bug to bite too hard in the upcoming year, despite what some more optimistic “experts” are spouting out, including those who purport that gold could go to $4,000 in 2025.

We’ll get there eventually, though.

Value of gold ownership may shrink in India as gold prices continue to rise

The purchase of gold jewelry for investment has been a part of Indian culture for centuries. This history, along with gold’s high liquidity and its status as a wealth symbol makes it no surprise that Indian women are reported to possess over 11% of total global gold reserves in the form of jewelry.

With increasing gold prices, however, Indian families have started to change how they invest in gold.

You’re unlikely to see a gold investor scoff at higher gold prices. Whether you bought gold when it was $1,650 or are buying it now at around $2,600, the continuous positive feedback from the gold market only indicates a prosperous future trajectory for gold investors.

If you’re buying gold bullion, and especially gold bars, what you pay for gold is not too far removed from spot prices, and premiums don’t concern the long-term investor too much.

When we talk about gold jewelry, things get a little murkier. Technically, gold jewelry buyers are gold investors, and they are always counted as such in any census of investment demand.

In India, gold jewelry actually has been a primary investment vehicle, with demand being driven by traditional Indian wedding and festival customs. Bridal jewelry, in particular, is responsible for a significant share of the gold market in the country.

Indians, who have traditionally relied on gold jewelry as an investment tool, have had to make some tough choices in how they invest due to higher gold prices.

Some are being pushed towards decreasing the amount of gold jewelry they purchase.

A father in Mumbai bemoans the adjustment:

I wanted to gift my daughter 80 grams of gold, but I was forced to scale it down to 50 grams because of price increase in the past two years.

This lament is likely to be echoed by many across India: the change may as well translate to a significant shift in their wealth and that of their families.  Add to this the fact that jewelry buyers often face massive premiums for their gold, the likes of which make those on 1/10 oz or commemorative gold coins seem inconsequential.

Indians have not just started to shift the amount of gold they buy. They have also begun trading off on gold purity amounts. But not just for the reasons you might think.

Jewelers in India have started noticing a move away from the purchase of 22-karat gold jewelry which is 91.7% pure gold, and increased demand for 18-karat pieces, which is only 75%.

This shift can be attributed to the increased demand and consequently higher selling price of 18-karat gold more recently, which bodes well for those who hope to hold on to as much gold as possible as global gold prices increase – especially if they can’t afford 22-karat jewelry.

Still, this adjustment to purchasing habits could transform a deeply rooted component of Indian culture.

The very same Indian families that are now buying gold jewelry with 75% purity for their children or grandchildren received gold jewelry with 91.7% purity from their parents or grandparents. Might we see the purity of inherited gold decline further?

Somewhere down the line, choosing to lessen the gold purity in the jewelry purchased might prove to be a regrettable choice for the world’s largest holder of consumer gold.

The gold market’s performance in 2025 hinges on multiple factors

Unpacking the various narratives as to where the price of gold is heading – and why, is proving as challenging as ever. Some predictions are more reliable than others, though only time will tell whether the forecast is accurate.

The World Gold Council (WGC) is among those dousing our end-of-year hopes with a healthy dose of optimism in their Gold Outlook 2025 report:

Our analysis based on QaurumSM suggests that, if the economy were to perform according to consensus in 2025, gold may continue to trade in a similar range to that seen in the last part of the year, with the potential for some upside.

The WGC lists four factors that are likely to impact the price of gold as we move into the upcoming year: economic expansion, risk, opportunity cost, and momentum.

The concern over whether Asian economies will continue to expand or slow down further due to global instability puts a cautious hamper over the hopes that gold prices will increase significantly next year.

Gold consumers in Asia have been as kept down as ever by high gold prices and high premiums. 2024 wasn’t exactly a year of explosive consumer gold demand in the region. Central Banks in countries like India were in large part responsible for maintaining a steady global demand for gold.

Adding further fuel to the economic fire are the expected trade wars that might arise once the Trump administration is in office, and the expected decrease in the growth of inflation globally, and in the West.

The biggest risk to the gold market comes from a normalization of a higher inflation rate and asset bubbles. Both of these increasingly likely realities are a looming threat, regardless of what Presidents Trump and Xi do to tariffs.

Despite the unpredictability of national economies and potential political risks, the opportunity cost of owning gold is growing continuously lower, despite the lack of consensus that seems to exist.

2023 was the year to hold gold, and so was 2024, for that matter. Rates were, and are, around the highest levels in the past 50 years.

By all accounts, we are now entering consecutive years where the so-called opportunity cost of holding gold should lower as rates get sliced and as the U.S. dollar becomes weaker.

As these three factors converge, and depending on their combined momentum, we can expect a steady rise in gold prices throughout the upcoming year and could witness some of the more optimistic estimates for gold prices become a reality.

It’s always good to keep an eye on the true fundamentals and driving forces that have pushed gold to this year’s levels and will continue to influence its prices. Geopolitics and trade talks might make for interesting headlines to some, but it is systemic financial change that is bringing gold back into the limelight.

Despite the many contrarian perspectives out there, predictions point to 2025 being a promising year for gold. With gold prices expected to reach $3,000 per ounce, and as rising inflation persists, investing in gold and other precious metals is a great way to protect your wealth.