Don’t trust any rally, short-term pain is part of their plan.

Trump isn’t worried about a little market turbulence, and he’s making that clear. Standing before Congress, he admitted his tariffs might cause “a little disturbance,” but he shrugged it off like it was nothing. The stock market, however, had a different reaction. Two straight days of sharp declines as Wall Street panicked over the sweeping 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. But Trump isn’t backing down. He sees it as a necessary step in his broader economic strategy.

The administration is sticking to the plan. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that a compromise with Canada and Mexico could be announced soon. But even with that possibility, Trump is holding firm. He calls tariffs a tool to make America rich again, insisting they’ll deliver results quickly. The pain now, he says, is worth it in the long run. That’s a big gamble, but one he’s willing to take.

Wall Street is feeling the heat, but Trump’s focus is elsewhere. Bessent, a key voice in this strategy, made it clear: “Over the medium term, which is what we’re focused on, it’s about Main Street.” According to him, small businesses and consumers are the priority, not the stock market. That’s easy to say when markets are tanking. The real question is how much pain small businesses can handle before it gets unbearable.

This isn’t just short-term pain. The way things are shaping up, this could turn into something much bigger. The market has already adjusted, now pricing in three full Fed rate cuts by the end of the year. That’s the real tell. If the economy were as strong as they claim, why would the Fed be preparing to slash rates? The game is shifting fast, and while Trump is standing firm, the markets are flashing warning signs.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/04/trump-says-a-little-disturbance-from-tariffs-is-ok-as-markets-reel-from-trade-war.html

https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1896925302640828897

https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1897122563744219254

https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1896947101449498827

https://x.com/dampedspring/status/1896917021490585702