by AC
I predict that by the end of January 2024, after retail sales from holiday spending posts lethargic consumer spending, companies will begin slashing millions of jobs causing wide-spread mortgage defaults. REO and foreclosures will flood the real estate market as real estate investors rush to liquidate their inventories forcing listing prices way down, causing home values to crash through the floor.
This will lead to a massive spike in the divorce rate as we witnessed in the last housing crash.
Foreclosure is a miserable experience as is divorce. Can you image the following scenario?
1. You purchased a home during the pandemic super bubble paying 100K over asking for a 1200sq foot bungalow. Everything seems amazing as your home equity jump 20% each month. You decide to have a couple kids in your new home and start a family.
2. fast forward to Jan 2024, You or your spouse are now unemployed and unable to afford the mortgage.
3. As prices are rapidly declining from many others facing similar situations from rising unemployment, you are trapped in your home due to being underwater on your loan, you can’t sell it for what you owe.
4. You decide to walk away from your home giving it to the bank while the stress of going though such hardship is taking it’s toll on your relationship causing one partner to decide they want a divorce.
4. Divorce, on it’s own is expensive if you are the primary provider of the household. Not only will you be subject to expensive lawyer fees, but you are likely to lose half of everything you own, and possibly pay child support which is also not cheap.
5. And just to pour salt in your wounds, the bank ends up selling your home for 100K less than you owed on it, now you’re looking at paying the tax on the $100k debt forgiven by the bank as income. That’s roughly another $40k your looking at handing to Uncle Sam during all of this.
Summary
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Within the span of two to three years you went from living the American dream to broke and homeless, by no fault of your own. This is just a cycle and we are at the end of the current one.