The DIE may have been cast today.
Let’s see: Since Trump ended the 2015 nuclear treaty with Iran in 2018, Iran has breached every one of the former treaty’s restrictions, which has taken it from the limit of 202.8KG (447.1 pounds) to the eleven-thousand pounds on enriched uranium it is known to hold today. It is now in the process of further enriching that material of 3.67% purity to 60% purity (which is far higher than any commercial use requires for uranium), while it has been claiming it has no interest in nuclear warheads, and it has enough of the material already up to that 60% level, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency, to create two nuclear warheads if taken the last step to 90% purity. That last step will take from a matter of days to a few weeks, according to the IAEA.
The question remaining is how long will it take for Iran to create a warhead that can deliver that material to Tel Aviv? There the guesstimates, obscured by the darkness of Iran’s now minimally inspected program, range from it already has such weapons to a few months to about a year. The IAEA, when it had more complete inspection abilities, learned that the nation that said it never had any interest in attaining a nuclear weapon was already working on one as far back as 2009.
Now put yourself in Israel’s place: You know Iran could have all the 90% pure material it needs for two nuclear warheads in a matter of days or a few weeks. You do know they have hypersonic missiles that are capable of delivering such a warhead to Israel in about 400 seconds from launch. You know Iran would love to wipe you off the face of the earth because many of its highest leaders have said this over many decades. Perhaps you don’t know how long it will take to actually weaponize that material to mount it on a missile for special delivery because you don’t know what underground operations have been going on; but professional estimates are a month to year. So, how long do you wait before you do something about it, knowing once they have actually built the bombs/missiles, it’s too late to do anything about it because they will just launch them if you try?
Now Iran tells you, as it just did yesterday, that, if you do even “the tiniest invasion” to retaliate to their latest attack, they will respond severely, and they tell you today that they will change their nuclear doctrine to openly going the final stages toward getting those bombs within the estimated one month to a year. You also know you ARE going to respond severely and have told the world this, so you have to follow through. Do you leave the nuclear plants out of your response, knowing the response, itself, now assures Iran will rapidly turn the material into nuclear bombs, or do you take those plants out in the response while you still can?
“The threats of the Zionist regime (Israel) against Iran’s nuclear facilities make it possible to review our nuclear doctrine and deviate from our previous considerations,” Ahmad Haghtalab, the Guards commander in charge of nuclear security, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
While the Ayatollah has the last say, not the commander of the guards, how long would that decision take? A day?
Moreover, the commander said today,
“If the Zionist regime wants to take action against our nuclear centers and facilities, we will surely and categorically reciprocate with advanced missiles against their own nuclear sites,” Haghtalab said.
So, that is where we are. If Israel does anything at all, Iran is threatening to change its nuclear doctrine to overtly building nuclear weapons out of the material it already has, albeit in hidden locations. So, does Israel, which has already announced it definitely will attack with severity, leave the nuclear option on the table for Iran? Or did Iran just seal the fate of its nuclear facilities?
Yesterday’s Daily Doom stories revealed that Israel announced it had decided on the type of response it is going to make but not the timing, and an ex-Mossad chief said that hitting Iran’s nuclear facilities was “on the table.” Another story said hypersonic missiles had been sent with all the old junk Iran sent Israel’s way, but were targeted at harmless sites, and all four of the missiles hit their targets, as if to say, “We can and will do this if things go any further.” The story was not corroborated by any other sources.
Fed followup
In other followup news on yesterday’s editorial, stock and bond markets both continued their plunge today with the mainstream press noting the main reason for the continuing decline is the concern that the Fed has clearly moved its rate cuts further away. Two more Fedheads today, said, at best, one cut will come near the end of the year. One of the Fedheads averred the next move could be a rate hike if things keep going as they have so far this year.!