K shaped economy in full effect and we’re not even officially in the recession yet.
Defaults on US credit card loans have hit the highest level since the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, in a sign that lower-income consumers’ financial health is waning after years of high inflation, per FT. #MacroEdge
— MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) December 29, 2024
Defaults on US credit card loans have surged to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. This alarming trend is a clear indicator of the financial instability many Americans are currently facing. The rise in defaults is driven by a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty.
In 2024, the total US credit card debt reached a staggering $1.17 trillion, marking a significant increase from previous years. This surge in debt has been accompanied by a worrying rise in delinquency rates.
Credit card lenders wrote off $46bn in seriously delinquent loan balances in the first nine months of 2024, up 50% from the same period in the year prior and the highest level in 14 years, according to industry data collated by BankRegData. Write-offs, which occur when lenders decide it is unlikely a borrower will make good on their debts, are a closely watched measure of significant loan distress.
The average interest rate on credit cards has also climbed to nearly 22%, the highest level recorded by the Federal Reserve in nearly three decades. This high-interest environment makes it even more challenging for consumers to manage their debt, leading to a vicious cycle of increasing balances and rising defaults.
Sources:
https://www.ft.com/content/c755a34d-eb97-40d1-b780-ae2e2f0e7ad9
https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/credit-card-debt-statistics/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS
Credit card defaults are not low, but total aggregate balance is also much bigger, the bottom 50% is getting blasted.
I keep doing the math from Miami to St. George, Bozeman, & more – and have no idea how the working class is making it pencil unless they’re operating on a… https://t.co/7ng0EZMYZ5 pic.twitter.com/DAvdqs3KPv
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 29, 2024
We’re making macro great again. https://t.co/TGWJdPjmW4 pic.twitter.com/xbhYAaizlg
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 29, 2024
ECON DATA : Lowest 🥂 Sales Figures Since 2002
•2023 sales match 1997 volume levels.(then adjust for inflation & 📉)
•Lowest annual sales since 2002 (recession year)
•these are not just declines but absolute collapse of a leading indicator of the consumer economy pic.twitter.com/vNxy5AP51M
— The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) December 30, 2024
The math isn’t mathing pic.twitter.com/uZMzCUoxeD
— Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 29, 2024
Office CMBS delinquency rates are soaring and nearing levels last seen during the GFC
The rate has more than doubled since June of last year
Looks like the banks are finally starting to take the hits versus trying to “extend and pretend” and letting them slide on payments pic.twitter.com/mTKvaedy7y
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 30, 2024
S&P 500 Blow-Off Top Update
If SPX gets a successful backtest it could fill the Gap at 5783 or test horizontal support at 5670.
If SPX sets up higher low & momentum signals all turn back to bullish, then it has to clear last week's high to resume the advance & challenge the… pic.twitter.com/ABoXoqaqCC
— King of the Charts (@ChartingProdigy) December 30, 2024