For all the worry about how America has become one big bet on AI, a similar but perhaps more alarming story is unfolding quietly in the other economic superpower. China’s vaunted AI prowess is concealing deep rot elsewhere in its economy.
Though many forecasters keep expecting China to surpass the US as the world’s leading economy, its growth peaked in 2021. Since then, China’s share of global GDP has fallen in nominal terms from 18 to 16.5 per cent, while the US share has risen to 26 per cent. China’s growth rate has dropped below the rest of the world, including the US. In real terms, independent estimates now put China’s growth in real terms closer to zero than to the official target of 4.5 to 5 per cent.
Even by the official numbers, AI is not providing a lift big enough to overcome other forces weighing on China, including its shrinking workforce, rising indebtedness, a broken property market, the revival of a meddlesome regulatory state and the resulting exodus of capital and people.
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https://archive.ph/3pDSO#selection-1817.0-1825.286