A data scientist who constructed a model to predict who will win the 2024 presidential election says Donald Trump has surged ahead in the last week.
Dr Thomas Miller from Northwestern University runs a website called The Virtual Tout, where he posts daily electoral vote forecasts. He also maps these predictions onto a graph with a timeline of major events that could sway voters – such as the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the October 1 debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz.
At the end of last month Miller placed Kamala Harris ahead of Trump – on September 30 she was predicted to take 308 electoral votes and Trump just 230.
However, after a week of Democrat numbers dropping, on October 7 the Republican took the lead with 270 to Harris’ 268.
news.yahoo.com/news/top-election-data-analyst-says-145803835.html
October Forecasts#
The Virtual Tout® provides a picture of the 2024 presidential election, updating this site when there are changes in forecasted electoral votes.
We will be posting forecasts until election day, November 5, 2024.
The most recent end-of-day electoral vote forecast (270 needed to win):
Rebublican: Trump/Vance (304)
Democratic: Harris/Walz (234)