Global stock markets peaked a month ago at the end of July. Then fell for the first three weeks of August.
Today, Nasdaq breadth was strongest since the market top.
September will be hell. pic.twitter.com/FST2UcLsci
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 30, 2023
The FDIC is literally using the same script as 2020…
They're changing the reserve requirements in September (again) which caused the banking crisis last time. Do they think the public is so clueless & dumb that they won't remember? š¤£
(September 2019 š«) t.co/IRL6KbYXek pic.twitter.com/zrVE3nKQI3
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) August 30, 2023
Corporate profits contracted by 6.5% year/year in 2Q23 ā¦ acceleration to downside from prior quarterās 1.8% decline; worst drop since pandemic pic.twitter.com/VoC9sXmzIQ
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) August 30, 2023
Credit managers index now the lowest for this cycle – nearing recessionary levels at 50.8. The credit enviro continues to weaken dramatically w/hawkish Fed policy aimed at slowing economy down. pic.twitter.com/GObKe4aAaL
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 30, 2023
Hedge fund exposure to mega-cap technology stocks just crossed 30% for the first time in history.
There has never been more hedge fund exposure to large technology stocks.
Institutional money really believes that AI is the next big thing.
Will AI live up to the hype? pic.twitter.com/6FwDbImy8T
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 30, 2023
Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008 – The AirBnB Bubble Has Bursts
Investor home purchases plummet 45% YoY in Q2, exceeding the 31% overall home sales drop, the largest decline since 2008, says Redfin. Cooling housing and rental markets have dimmed the appeal of home investment. Low-income households face affordability issues amid stagnant wages and high costs. Despite above-pre-pandemic levels, investor purchases fell to the lowest in seven years. Stubbornly high home prices and mortgage rates, limited inventory, and economic uncertainty have dampened housing demand. Housing sentiment has eroded among the lowest-income households, hinting at financial distress and a looming economic slowdown.
Lookout! – Deficits, Inflation And QT
Deficits rise, yields fall, defying common expectations. Since 1980, as debt to GDP increases, yields drop, contrary to concerns. Hoisington Investment Management highlights that history shows a paradox: initial deficit-fueled stimulus leads to negative effects on private GDP after a few years. Rising government debt outpaces revenue, requiring lower interest rates to manage costs. This expanding debt is predicted to hinder growth and inflate inflation. While the market fears higher yields from more debt, history suggests otherwise. The Treasury aims to avoid locking in higher rates for longer, acknowledging this trend.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, August Update: 4th YoY Price Drop Overall
Year-over-year price drops hit cities like San Francisco, Seattle, Las Vegas, and more. The June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index reflects fading spring season effects with a slower month-to-month rise (+0.9%) compared to prior months. Yearly, the index fell 1.2%, marking the fourth month of declines. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors’ July median-price index saw the first month-to-month dip after spring season, amid declining sales. This suggests concerns about a potential housing bubble.
The Fed May Have Crushed the Housing Market: Top Economist El-Erian
“When you go from record-low mortgage rates to levels that we haven’t seen for almost 20 years, you’ve destroyed both demand and supply,” El-Erian said. High mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate at 7.48%, have frozen the market, impacting supply and demand. Prospective buyers are priced out, while existing homeowners hold onto low-interest mortgages, keeping prices elevated. The market’s caught in limbo, needing significant mortgage rate reductions to improve affordability. El-Erian highlights the central role of the housing market in the economy and the risk of a recession due to Fed’s rate hikes.