Consumer Credit Is Much Weaker Than Expected, Non-Revolving Turns Negative

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Nonrevolving credit posted its first negative reading since April of 2020. The net change is the lowest since November 2020. The Fed will be pleased with this report.

Consumer credit data from the Fed, chart by Mish

The Bloomberg Econoday consensus was for credit to rise by $20.0 billion.

Instead, the rise was $7.3 billion. In addition, the Fed revised May credit from $23.0 billion to $20.3 billion.

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The consumer is clearly weakening as the lead chart shows.

Consumer Credit in Billions of Dollars

Consumer credit data from the Fed, government credit is student loans, chart by Mish

Those are nominal numbers. In nominal terms revolving credit, mainly credit cards, hit a new record high. Inflation adjusted numbers are much weaker.

Revolving Consumer Credit

Revolving consumer credit data from the Fed, Real (inflation adjusted) calculation and chart by Mish.

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Resolving Consumer Credit Detail in Billions of Dollars

Adjusted for inflation, revolving credit is still less than the pre-pandemic high.

Real Consumer Credit

Real consumer credit is weakening, especially non-revolving. That reflects a slowdown in autos, housing, and student debt.

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