Folks are losing trust in the economy, and it’s showing up everywhere you look. Consumer confidence slid again in February—people sizing up a shaky present and betting it’ll get uglier before it clears. The Conference Board’s latest tally says it all: more Americans see a recession barreling down, personal spending’s crawling at 2.4 percent, and prices are clawing higher—pricing index jumped from 2.2 percent to 4.2 percent, the sharpest spike since late 2022. Jobless claims landed at 242,000 too—20,000 over what the number-crunchers thought—and the six-month job outlook’s the gloomiest in over a decade.
Peel back the confidence numbers, and it’s a rough drop. The index fell 7 points to 98.3 from 105.3 in January—biggest tumble since August 2021. The Present Situation Index, how folks rate today, slipped 3.4 points to 136.5—grumbly but steady. The real gut punch is the Expectations Index, crashing 9.3 points to 72.9—under 80’s recession territory, and we’re parked there. More people, every age and income, told the survey a downturn’s coming—highest chunk in months. This isn’t just nerves—it’s a cold look at a creaky now and a bleaker soon.
Jobs are turning into a sore spot—worst in years. Claims hit 242,000 last week, 20,000 past the 220,000 guess—nobody’s shrugging that off. The six-month view’s darker—20.3 percent figure jobs’ll shrink ahead, most bearish since the early 2010s, while just 19.4 percent see more opening up. That’s a net minus-0.9 percent on jobs hope—been bad, staying bad. This isn’t a hiccup—it’s a slowdown folks feel in their bones, and the help-wanted signs are fading.
Prices are biting harder—hot and climbing. That pricing index leap—2.2 percent to 4.2 percent—marks the steepest since Q4 2022, way outpacing the 2.4 percent personal spending creep. Inflation’s hanging tough—core PCE at 2.7 percent over a 2.5 percent call, GDP Price Index at 2.4 percent past a 2.2 percent nod. People are shelling out—4.2 percent on goods—but it’s not happy shopping; it’s grabbing before costs climb more. They’re spending ‘cause they have to—prices aren’t waiting, and wallets are stretched thin.
That 4.2 percent price pop’s the loudest since late ‘22—food’s up 2.8 percent, energy 3.1 percent, shelter’s steady pain. Jobless claims at 242,000? Weather’s not the excuse—retail’s shedding, manufacturing’s quiet, and folks see it. Spending’s 2.4 percent clip isn’t joy—it’s stockpiling ahead of tariffs or cuts elsewhere. This mess brewed slow—years of loose cash, sticky costs, and now it’s boiling over.
Here’s the straight scoop: it’s a slog ahead. Confidence at 98.3, expectations at 72.9—recession talk’s thick, and that 4.2 percent price jump says inflation’s awake. Jobs at 242,000 claims, bleakest six-month outlook in 12 years—it’s no wonder folks are sour. The economy’s wobbling—spending’s a bandage, prices are the wound, and jobs might be the next to bleed. GDP’s at 2.3 percent, holding—but with this gloom, it’s a shaky prop ‘til the storm hits.
Sources:
https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1895100010938671264
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1895107906179342682
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1894647818654290091
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Feb-2025
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/consumer-confidence-index-plummets-february-2025/