As Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs offer contrasting forecasts for the US economy, the optimistic predictions of a soft landing clash with the grim reality brewing. The frequent references to a soft landing often signify a desperate grasp at hope amidst impending adversity, hinting that a hard landing might be imminent. Despite this, the persisting hope suggests a potential departure from the norm. However, the current landscape tells a different story: layoffs are skyrocketing, and for the first time in nearly a decade, bank lending in the US is on a downward trajectory. These intertwined indicators paint a picture of impending economic turmoil, challenging the narrative of a peaceful resolution.
When companies start referencing soft-landing as frequently as they are now, it is usually a triumph of hope over reality and a hard landing is just around the corner. But maybe this time will be different!
— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) November 13, 2023
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) November 13, 2023
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) November 13, 2023
Bank lending in the US is now falling for the first time since 2012 👀 pic.twitter.com/mA3ogjvIKM
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) November 13, 2023
The largest drawdown in the used vehicle markets in the US! pic.twitter.com/CKFgw7o4RB
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) November 13, 2023
Fed cuts will be bullish for equities, right? pic.twitter.com/7zd9xIzco7
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) November 13, 2023