Recent warnings from a German bank highlight the potential global impact of the US commercial real estate (CRE) crisis. The credit spreads on their bonds are surging, indicative of the growing stress.
While US regional banks are already feeling the strain due to their substantial exposure to US CRE, European banks, particularly in Germany, are also at risk. The German banking system’s high leverage in CRE makes it susceptible to shocks. Larger banks, including Deutsche Bank, are not immune, mainly through their US subsidiaries.
Although the situation is not existential yet, monitoring the CRE market’s spillover effects on global banks is crucial. The liquidity mechanisms that work for treasuries may not be as effective in a solvency crisis involving US commercial properties.
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US commercial real estate wobbles became apparent in 2023, and regional banks in the US have been hit hard because of their large exposure to US CRE.
But European banks also have some large CRE loan books to handle.
— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 15, 2024
Recently a couple of German banks in the 50-300 bn balance sheet range have come under severe pressure.
The credit spread on a 3-year senior bond issued by Deutsche Pfandbriefbank is exploding today:
— Alf (@MacroAlf) February 15, 2024
đź“°#Trepp in @Bloomberg: "#CMBS delinquencies peaked at more than 10% in July 2012, 4 years after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The January delinquency rate for securitized loans is 4.66%, according to Trepp." @natalexisw & @pat_clarkt.co/xyfbf9woCA
— Trepp (@TreppWire) February 15, 2024
This is EXACTLY how the 2008 Financial Crisis happened pic.twitter.com/NKrjyMBReY
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) February 15, 2024
Decades of growth fueled by low interest rates and easy credit have come to an abrupt halt. With a staggering 2.7 trillion dollars in commercial real estate loans held by U.S. banks, predominantly managed by smaller regional institutions accounting for approximately 80 per cent of the total, concerns are mounting regarding their resilience in the face of impending challenges. According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, a significant portion of this debt is slated to mature, with over 2.2 trillion dollars due by the close of 2027.
These apprehensions were further heightened following the unexpected loss of 252 million dollars reported by New York Community Bancorp in the last quarter, a stark departure from the 172 million dollars profit recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022. The company attributed this downturn to a notable surge in loan losses, particularly in the realm of commercial real estate financing.
The repercussions of this concerning trend reverberated through the financial markets, as evidenced by a significant decline in the bank’s shares, plummeting nearly 50 per cent over the past five trading sessions. Concurrently, the U.S. Regional Bank index experienced a notable 7 per cent drop during the same period.
Investors find themselves grappling with a familiar sense of unease as apprehensions mount over the looming specter of a crisis in the 20 trillion-dollar commercial real estate market. Unlike previous downturns centered around interest rate volatility, the current turmoil stems from fundamental challenges ingrained within the industry.
Decades of growth fueled by accommodative monetary policies and accessible credit have ground to a halt, with office and retail property valuations embarking on a downward trajectory since the onset of the pandemic. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation through interest rate hikes have further compounded the sector’s woes, particularly impacting its credit-dependent nature.