🇨🇳 China Overnight Economic Data:
*Exports: Beat 🟢
*Imports: Beat 🟢
*Trade Surplus: Beat 🟢Either tariffs are having no effect on China's foreign trade or these numbers are completely made up. pic.twitter.com/XxvmpMNxC6
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) May 9, 2025
China’s latest trade data is out, and the numbers are raising eyebrows. Exports surged past expectations, imports showed unexpected resilience, and the trade surplus remained robust. Either Beijing has found a way to sidestep the economic pressures of tariffs, or these figures are more fiction than fact.
China’s exports climbed 8.1% year-on-year, defying predictions. This follows a 12.4% jump in March, which many analysts attributed to exporters rushing shipments ahead of the 145% U.S. tariffs. Imports, which had been on a downward slide, managed to shrink by only 0.2%, a stark contrast to the 5.9% decline expected. The trade surplus, while still massive at $96.18 billion, cooled slightly from March’s $102.64 billion.
The big question: Are these numbers real? The timing is suspicious. With Washington and Beijing locked in a heated trade war, both sides have incentives to manipulate figures. The U.S. tariffs were designed to squeeze China’s export-driven economy, yet the data suggests minimal impact. Meanwhile, China’s imports should be suffering from weak domestic demand, but the numbers tell a different story.
Where is China sending its goods? The trade surplus with the U.S. narrowed to $20.5 billion, down from $27.6 billion. Yet China’s overall trade balance remained strong, thanks to booming exports to ASEAN nations (+20.8% y/y) and the EU (+8.3% y/y). This shift suggests Beijing is finding alternative markets to offset losses from U.S. restrictions. However, ASEAN countries have already begun imposing import restrictions on Chinese goods, meaning this strategy may not be sustainable.
The bigger picture: China’s economy is under immense pressure. The property market remains in crisis, domestic demand is weak, and investor confidence is fragile. Beijing has rolled out stimulus measures, including liquidity injections and rate cuts, to cushion the blow. But if these trade figures are accurate, they suggest China is weathering the storm better than expected—or at least wants the world to think so.
SOURCES:
https://www.econotimes.com/Chinas-Trade-Surplus-Remains-Strong-but-Cools-in-April-2025-1709850