⚠️BREAKING:
*CHINA APRIL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 5.1%; EST. 5.2%
*CHINA RETAIL SALES RISE 5.1% Y/Y; EST. 6.0%
*CHINA INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.1% Y/Y; EST. 5.7%
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— Investing.com (@Investingcom) May 19, 2025
China’s latest economic data is raising eyebrows as official reports paint a picture of growth, while underlying indicators suggest a more complicated reality. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that April’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent, slightly better than the expected 5.2 percent. Retail sales increased 5.1 percent year-over-year, missing the forecasted 6.0 percent, and industrial output rose 6.1 percent, surpassing the estimated 5.7 percent. On the surface, these numbers suggest resilience, but a deeper look reveals troubling inconsistencies.
The government’s decision to suspend the release of youth unemployment, property market, and foreign direct investment (FDI) data has fueled speculation about the true state of the economy. These metrics are crucial for assessing long-term stability, and their absence raises concerns about transparency. Meanwhile, tax receipts declined 3.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025, signaling weaker business activity. Industrial electricity usage, a reliable indicator of production strength, slowed from 6 percent growth in Q1 2024 to just 2 percent in Q1 2025. Crude demand in April also fell 6 percent, contradicting the narrative of robust industrial expansion.
The numbers don’t add up. Despite these warning signs, China’s GDP is reported to have grown 5 percent, and industrial output supposedly expanded 6 percent. The disconnect between official figures and real-world indicators suggests that the government may be massaging the data to maintain confidence. Investors and analysts are increasingly skeptical, questioning whether China’s economic recovery is as strong as advertised.
The global implications of China’s economic slowdown are significant. A weaker Chinese economy could impact global trade, particularly for nations heavily reliant on exports to China. The recent downturn in crude demand hints at reduced manufacturing activity, which could ripple through supply chains worldwide. If China’s growth figures are overstated, markets may be in for a correction as reality sets in.
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