China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials, Just a Start?

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via Mike Shedlock

According to the research firm’s Global Shipment Report, China accounted for 24% of all ‌iPhone‌ shipments in Q2 2023, while the U.S. market accounted for 21%.\

image courtesy of Statista, annotations added

The Wall Street Journal reports China Bans iPhone Use for Government Officials at Work

China ordered officials at central government agencies not to use Apple’s iPhones and other foreign-branded devices for work or bring them into the office, people familiar with the matter said.

Apple, one of America’s most valuable tech companies that relies on China both as a major market and as a production site, has been largely spared in the technology battle between the world’s top two economic powers. With most Apple products assembled in China, Apple is a source of millions of jobs in the country through its contract manufacturers and suppliers.

Warning Shot

The problem for China is that a total ban would be a two-edged sword. Nonetheless, it’s a warning shot.

The US struck at Huawei, and in a very delayed reaction, China took a tiny piece of Apple’s China market away.

Gloomy Projection for Next iPhone Launch

US Sanctions Fail Again, China Now Produces Its Own Advanced Computer Chips

On September 4, I noted US Sanctions Fail Again, China Now Produces Its Own Advanced Computer Chips

I received many comments along the lines of “so what?”. Those responses are because China is still at least two generations behind the US in chip making capability.

That’s short-sighted thinking.

The US wanted to restrict China’s access to 5G technology and failed. China is producing good enough chips for many uses. US sanction policy forced China to produce its own chips and it unexpectedly did in short order. China will not be 5 years behind the US forever.

Qualcomm To Lose Up To 60 Million Chipset Orders in 2024 Thanks To Huawei’s Kirin 9000S, Potential Profit Loss In The Billions

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Please consider Qualcomm To Lose Up To 60 Million Chipset Orders in 2024 Thanks To Huawei’s Kirin 9000S, Potential Profit Loss In The Billions

The U.S. sanctions may have forced Huawei into a corner as far as its smartphone business is concerned, but the Chinese firm has remained relentless and managed to circumvent those trade limitations with the Kirin 9000S, its first custom SoC that materialized after a brief hiatus and is found in the newly released Mate 60 Pro 5G.

While it is not the most capable chipset when doing performance and efficiency comparisons, its inception signifies Huawei’s intentions of not relying on the likes of Qualcomm in the future, who is said to potentially lose out on billions due to this new silicon, according to one analyst.

Huawei purchased between 40-42 million chipsets from Qualcomm in 2023, the Kirin 9000S will result in massive financial losses for the SoC maker.

Despite the trade sanctions placed on Huawei, it was still one of Qualcomm’s biggest customers, purchasing between 23-25 million units in 2022 and 40-42 million units in 2023. With the Chinese firm said to completely adopt Kirin chipsets in 2024, at least according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, it means Qualcomm is set to ship around 50-60 million units less next year, putting a significant dent in its revenue stream for the entire 2024.

Let us get into our estimations, and assuming that each one of those shipments is a Snapdragon 8 Gen 3, and the cost per SoC is $180, Qualcomm may lose $10.8 billion in revenue next year. It is unclear if Huawei intends to offer the Kirin 9000S to more Chinese brands next year, but if it does, it will likely be at a lower cost than Qualcomm’s own offerings.

Donald Trump: My Tariff Policies Were a Success

On August 30, Trump was in the WSJ with this announcement. My Tariff Policies Were a Success

Under Joe Biden, our trade deficits, also known as losses, have hit record highs. Since 2000 the U.S. has racked up $17 trillion in cumulative trade deficits with the world. Only a fool or a fanatic would dismiss these facts as irrelevant.

The best way to stop this hemorrhaging of America’s lifeblood is a simple but powerful tariff on most foreign products, like the kind that was the primary source of government revenue through most of American history, and which built this country into the manufacturing powerhouse of the world.

As I demonstrated repeatedly, the tariff is also an important tool of U.S. national security and diplomacy. I am proud to be the only candidate for president who believes in true economic nationalism.

Trump’s Real Trade Record

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The above image courtesy of the Census Bureau via the WSJ article Trump’s Real Trade Record

His tariffs haven’t cut the trade deficit; they’ve merely shifted it.

The goods trade deficit with China did dip somewhat after Mr. Trump launched his global tariff campaign in 2018. At the same time, however, the deficits with Mexico and the rest of the world went up. A trade surplus or deficit isn’t a good measure of success, but since Mr. Trump thinks it is, see the chart nearby [above]. President Biden has left Mr. Trump’s policies in place, so the figures run through last year.

Since 2017, when Mr. Trump entered the Oval Office, goods imports to the U.S. in nominal dollars have increased 174% from Vietnam, 116% from Taiwan, 96% from Bangladesh, 89% from Thailand, 76% from India, and 62% from South Korea. Maybe Mr. Trump should start giving out campaign hats that say “Make Vietnam Great Again.”

The irony in Trump blaming Biden is Biden kept all of Trump’s tariffs intact and even added more.

Trump Wants a 10 Percent Tariff on Everything, It’s Really a $300 Billion Tax Hike

Trump’s solution is to place a 10 Percent Minimum Tariff on the Whole World.

A 10 percent global tariff would increase inflation, reduce jobs, and reduce US exports. Sanctions have the same impact.

Trump’s sanctions on China, upped by Biden, forced Huawei’s hand. As a direct result, China will soon kiss Qualcomm goodbye.

If and when China responds by placing export restrictions on rare earth minerals used in phones, batteries, wind turbines, chips, and missiles we will have a real mess.

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