2/ The Fed has been on an unprecedented hiking cycle since 2022
Taking rates from near 0% to 5.5% in just 1.5 years pic.twitter.com/3eVzwmSreS
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024
4/ High rates negatively impact the housing market
Given the high rate sensitivity of that sector
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024
6/ Such high rates made the housing market extremely unaffordable
Homebuyer affordability fell to the lowest levels seen in 35 years pic.twitter.com/ZTqmXkBrMt
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024
8/ As unaffordability grew and high inflation put pressure on consumers, defaults started rising
Delinquency rate for multifamily housing hit levels unseen in a decade pic.twitter.com/dOPeSbLyFP
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024
10/ Currently, there’s a 63.5% chance of a 25 bps cut next month
And a 36.5% probability of a 50 bps cut
That means, a Sept rate cut is nearly guaranteed at this point
Which should potentially provide some reflief to the housing market
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024
12/ For now, the market continues to remain in a bullish structure
And has wiped out the weak hands in the recent false breakdown
Which we used to load up on attractive risk-reward Trades
And simultaneously sent out multiple real-time Trade Alerts pic.twitter.com/K24yF9ODW2
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) August 27, 2024