Heads Up

The sharpest signals, deepst dives and must-read reports from Citizen Watch Report.

Liquidity Fairy Alert! Bank Term Funding Program usage rose this week ($102.305B vs $101.959B on 7/5), marking the 6th straight week over $100B. It’s looking more and more like there’s an over-reliance on Fed Funding. Could this be a moral hazard?

by Dismal-Jellyfish Borrowing from the Bank Term Funding Program is back on the increase! What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial shrink in M2 and dip in deposits. …

READ MORE

Federal Reserve Alert! Fed Releases Public sections of July 2023 Resolution Plans aka “Living Wills” for: Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon Corp, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp, and Wells Fargo & Co.

by Dismal-Jellyfish Bank of America (PDF) Bank of New York Mellon Corp (PDF) Citigroup (PDF) Credit Suisse (PDF)***** Goldman Sachs (PDF) JPMorgan Chase (PDF) Morgan Stanley (PDF) State Street Corp (PDF) Wells Fargo & Co (PDF) ***** Credit Suisse submitted this plan pursuant to a deficiency identified in the firm’s December 17, 2021, resolution plan …

READ MORE

Fed plans to start dramatically reducing BTFP & OCE liquidity, causing the banking crisis in September; Fed’s Bullard stepping down in August

Total BTFP & OCE didn't drop this week. The Fed paused pulling liquidity from the banks Now that we know Bullard is leaving the Fed on Aug 14 that's the likely target week when the Fed plans to start dramatically reducing BTFP & OCE liquidity, causing the banking crisis in Sep🤫 https://t.co/lwuGir9xCj pic.twitter.com/om91NKrS9u — Financelot …

READ MORE

FBI Director Wray confirms that Joe Biden is under federal investigation for Ukrainian bribes.

BREAKING: FBI Director Wray confirms that Joe Biden is under federal investigation for Ukrainian bribes. 😱 pic.twitter.com/SZwpwTEMXL — Ryan Fournier (@RyanAFournier) July 12, 2023 🚨BREAKING: FBI Director Wray confirms Joe Biden is under criminal investigation for Ukrainian bribes by the US Attorney in Delaware then tries to backpedal after realizing what he disclosed How is …

READ MORE

Options traders start to load up puts; The average stock remains in a death cross on a weekly basis; Q2 Earning season starts Friday. Banks gonna stink it up.

Options traders are loading up on contracts that will jump in value should equities see a big drop NEW YORK, July 12 (Reuters) – Options traders are taking advantage of muted U.S. stock market gyrations to load up on contracts that would jump in value should equities see a big drop, boosting the number of …

READ MORE

Global economic crisis is terrifying, but we don’t realize it’s already happening.

Global Export New Orders Fall 16 Straight Months Led by Goods PMI surveys compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicated a sixteenth monthly fall in export orders for goods and services at the end of the second quarter. Global PMI chart from S&P Global Market Intelligence Global Trade Falls at Fastest Rate for Five Months …

READ MORE

UK lenders have experienced the highest surge in mortgage defaults in over a decade

According to recent reports, lenders in the United Kingdom have experienced the most significant surge in mortgage defaults in over a decade. Over the past three months, there has been a noticeable increase in the number of borrowers who are struggling to meet their mortgage payment obligations, marking the highest level since mid-2009. ⚠️UK LENDERS …

READ MORE

Car Prices Face Biggest Drop On Record As Auto Market Apocalypse Begins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQJKDMYy9ZM A car market crash of epic proportions is already in motion, according to new data released by Manheim Market Insights and Cox Automotive. In June, car prices faced a record drop, marking the end of two years of hefty increases. Used vehicles saw the biggest monthly declines since the pandemic boom, while new cars …

READ MORE

Inflation Alert! Despite a 3.0% increase in the overall index, excluding food and energy, inflation remains persistent as it rose by 4.8% over the past 12 months. While Corporate Media celebrates the headline, inflation is still growing and showing no signs of slowing!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm All items less food and energy: Inflation and Housing: The overall index for items excluding food and energy increased by 0.2% in June. The cost of housing, represented by the shelter index, rose by 0.4% in June. Rent increased by 0.5%, and owners’ equivalent rent (for homeowners) increased by 0.4%. However, …

READ MORE

Why Slower Inflation Won’t Prompt the Fed to Lower Rates

by bitkogan Sure, 3% is better than 9%. But given the new record highs in stock indices, it’s still not better enough to expect the Fed to start cutting interest rates anytime soon. Firstly, 3% is still above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target. Secondly, the low (relatively speaking) figures for the general consumer price index …

READ MORE

Inflation Alert! Purchasing power of dollars continues to VANISH! In June, purchasing power of $100 in January 2000 is now $55.40 (-$.20 from April & $1 since January!)

by Dismal-Jellyfish Remember, CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, & thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0R#0 Let’s zoom in on this since 2020: CPI tracks the loss of the purchasing power of your dollars, and thereby the purchasing power of your hard earned labor: June …

READ MORE

Federal Reserve Alert! Beige Book July 12, 2023: “many contacts reported an inability to fully pass on increased costs to consumers, which has compressed margins.” Is the ‘Greedflation’ Peak in Sight?

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202307.htm Overall Economic Activity Overall economic activity increased slightly since late May. Five Districts reported slight or modest growth, five noted no change, and two reported slight and modest declines. Reports on consumer spending were mixed; growth was generally observed in consumer services, but some retailers noted shifts away from discretionary spending. Tourism and …

READ MORE

Matt Gaetz Straight Out Asks FBI Director Christopher Wray if He’s Protecting the Bidens, Reads Biden’s Smoking Gun ‘Shakedown’ Message; Wray’s Answer Is ‘Revealing’

Secret Service Refuses to Honor Records Request for Biden Cocaine Scandal Documents . . . . . . Hunter Biden Mystery: Why Did Delaware Prosecutor Not Bring Charges His Office Approved? Slimy Hunter Biden Built Network of Extensive Ties to Father’s Senior Aides

FICC-GOV,FICC-MBS,DTC,NSCC Alert! New Minimum Capital Requirements: the increased capital requirements take effect on August 26, 2023

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2023/7/11/GOV1510-23.pdf https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2023/7/11/MBS1248-23.pdf https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2023/7/11/18775-23.pdf https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2023/7/11/a9319.pdf https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2023/7/11/a9319.pdf Wut mean? The National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), along with the Depository Trust Company (DTC) and the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (FICC), are increasing their minimum capital requirements for members. These changes were proposed in December 2021 and approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in …

READ MORE

Inflation Alert! The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Review July: The Official Cash Rate (OCR) held at 5.5%. Employment above sustainable level, Consumer spending slows. Could this be the start of other central banks pausing this time as the Fed take the lead with the July rate hike?

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2023/07/official-cash-rate-remains-on-hold Highlights: The RBNZ has decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50%. Remember, this is the rate of interest which the RBNZ charges on overnight loans to commercial banks. The RBNZ expects the OCR to remain at this level for a while to ensure inflation returns to the target range …

READ MORE

Lonely America: More Americans Are Living Alone Than Ever Before

by Michael Once upon a time, it was fairly rare to find someone that was living by themselves in America.  But now that has completely changed.  Americans are getting married later in life, couples are having fewer children, divorce is rampant, and millions of broken families litter our national landscape.  As a result, the traditional …

READ MORE

An ominous sign for the global economy…

China is showing signs of weakness, an ominous sign for the global economy: China 1-year government bond yield ⬇️ China large-cap ETF ⬇️ Copper price ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/oQA1uNfnsj — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 11, 2023 China’s $77 Billion Bank Rout Shows Who Pays Price for Rescues A Bloomberg Intelligence stock index of Chinese lenders has tumbled …

READ MORE

The Alarming Decline in Birth Rates Across the Globe

by Glenn Reynolds IT’S A WORLDWIDE PROBLEM: Why China’s Young People Are Not Getting Married. Grace Zhang, a tech worker who had long been ambivalent about marriage, spent two months barricaded in the government lockdown of Shanghai last year. Robbed of the ability to move freely, she spiraled over the loss of control. As she …

READ MORE

Do You Like Bananas? Our Fed Does.

By Graham Summers, MBA Yesterday’s article caused quite a stir. If you missed it, my main point was this: the U.S. is now an emerging market. And it’s getting downright embarrassing. Last week our Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, arguably the most important financial figure in our country, and the person in charge of …

READ MORE

Australia’s Draconian Bill suppresses dissent, erasing individual liberties.

via rairfoundation: The ambiguous definitions and unchecked powers granted by Australia’s proposed bill raise concerns about the erosion of diversity of opinions, stifling important discussions and scientific inquiry. In a turn of events consistent with limits on freedom of speech across the Western world, Australia’s Federal Executive government (Albanese government) has proposed a bill that …

READ MORE

Q2 bank earnings begin Friday; Analysts are expecting the worst earnings decline since the pandemic, -7%.

As we approach the beginning of Q2 bank earnings, analysts are bracing themselves for what is anticipated to be the most significant decline in earnings since the onset of the pandemic, with a staggering -7% expected. This pattern seems eerily familiar, as we witnessed a similar sequence of events back in 2018 when the Federal …

READ MORE