Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The sharpest signals, deepst dives and must-read reports from Citizen Watch Report.
There's a third and most likely scenario in which the dollar implodes and Big Tech implodes at the same time. That's what happened in March 2020 and the set-up now is identical. pic.twitter.com/Qg1JXXawVr — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 1, 2023 A new risk that has emerged in the past month: If the Fed stops hiking rates …
by Dismal-Jellyfish If half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, the losses due to CRE distress would result in up to 58 smaller regional banks becoming insolvent in addition to 186 banks that would become insolvent just due to higher rates. Wut Mean?: The U.S. banking system’s market value of assets is about $2.2 trillion …
On top of printing $4 trillion, the Fed lowered rates to 0% overnight in March 2020. Now, we have the fastest rate hike campaign in history. It’s unclear if zero interest rate policy was a net positive. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 31, 2023 …
URGENT UPDATE: BEIJING FACES UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING: THREE GORGES DAM UNDER THREAT In a recent report, Beijing has experienced a record-breaking 19.6 inches of rainfall within a 24-hour period, leading to catastrophic flooding across the region. The situation has raised concerns about the stability of the Three Gorges Dam, which the CCP had previously lauded as …
CNN says Hunter was just selling 'illusion' of access to his dad Kind of like how CNN just sells the 'illusion' of journalism — Jack Posobiec (@JackPosobiec) July 31, 2023 Would be a shame if this clip of Joe Biden brazenly, blatantly, knowingly lying to every reporter in America went viral. (pssst you know what …
by Michael Should we be surprised that we are witnessing so many failures all around us? After all, the mainstream media claims that the U.S. economy is doing just great. Of course the truth is that the economy is not in good shape at all. Those in positions of power have been desperately trying to prop …
https://twitter.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1686187300516954112 EVERYTHING IS GOING SWIMMINGLY: Car Loans Tougher to Get, More People Getting Rejected by Lenders. https://twitter.com/1200616796295847936/status/1686034230470451201 The total for all commercial properties that were in distress was $72 billion, in the US, up 13% from the first quarter, per Bloomberg. pic.twitter.com/rG3DWoF14z — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 31, 2023 Tech bulls are right, this is not 1999. …
France MUST have the Sweet, Sweet Cheddar (Uranium Yellow Cake) from Niger, or they will be forced to buy it from Russia to keep the lights on in France. ❗️ The economic community of West African countries has given an ultimatum to Niger: the military junta must return power to the legally elected president. Otherwise, …
by willynillyslide Recently Netflix announced an ad-based tier that is 55% cheaper than it’s standard tier, and after failing to get more than 2% of it its users to join it, it caved and lowered the price from $7.99 to $6.99 My opinion: the fact that Netflix has introduced ads at all is a death knell …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1662 The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1]for the July – September 2023 and October – December 2023 quarters. During the July – September 2023 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $1.007 trillion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $650 billion.[2] …
via naturalnews: Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis has issued a warning to the censorship company NewsGuard Technologies, Inc. about promoting a rating system for the quality of information, as though they are some kind of “arbiter of truth.” The Sunshine State CFO further said that this practice may trigger the state’s divestment laws and that he …
By Graham Summers, MBA Everything changed for the financial system in March 2023. What happened then? The Fed and the Treasury implemented a backdoor bailout of the banking system. If you’ll recall, in late February/ early March 2023, a number of smaller/ regional banks failed in the U.S. While we say these banks were “small” …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Table 1 (PDF) | Table 2 (PDF) | Charts (PDF) Wut Mean?: Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Lending: Banks tightened standards for C&I loans to businesses of all sizes. All loan terms for C&I loans, like rate spreads, premiums on riskier loans, credit line costs, and many others, were tightened. Both large and other banks tightened C&I lending …
by Simon Black The Federal Reserve– the most critically important central bank in the world– is completely, hopelessly insolvent. This isn’t some wild conspiracy theory or overly dramatic interpretation of the facts; we’re extremely data-focused in this organization and base our conclusions on indisputable, open-source figures. And the facts in this case are crystal clear: …
UK money supply is now falling. pic.twitter.com/2bzfTGGXBi — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 31, 2023 The Chinese service sector not exactly firing on all cylinders. pic.twitter.com/zIYDn3C6XK — Longview Economics (@Lvieweconomics) July 31, 2023 Australian Business Credit y/y growth posted its slowest print of this cycle as RBA hikes begin to hit the Ozzieland… Housing sector health …
"There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9 billion from consumer spending every month, or roughly $100 billion a year" Apollo's Slok — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 31, 2023 This is …
by RedditIsOwendByTheWS The government now lives from month to month. soon it will be from week to week. Then from day to day. and finally from hour to hour. Source : Traders Brace for $102 Billion Wave of Treasury Bond Sales – Bloomberg
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics, aka the Federal government takeover of the US economy with Soviet-style economic central planning, is highly dependent on loose Federal Reserve monetary policy (Janet Yellen and Powell’s wild overreaction to the massively inappropriate Covid shutdowns), So, how is Bidenomics working out? On the bank lending front, commercial and industrial (C&I) lending growth …
https://twitter.com/senorceecee/status/1685890429009747968 Retirement Confidence Among Americans Has Hit An All-Time Low – ProfessPost According to a recent research released this week, there was a significant decline in the percentage of Americans who believe they will be financially prepared for a comfortable retirement. Credit : BlackRock According to BlackRock’s findings, the percentage of people feeling on track for retirement …
by No_Impact_2920 No, because it would be a violation of your first amendment rights. So why is this behavior allowed on website platforms? If a site is designed for communication, it should follow the laws of the constitution. Other companies can’t discriminate, why should websites be able to do so? I’ve noticed a trend of …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1685201566196748289 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1685637032415043585 “Why the Federal Reserve has made everything more expensive to make things less expensive” actual title of article by NBC, they to on to call this “A little bit of science and a little bit of art” Clownworld is authoring its own satire at this point. NBC News engages Orwell mode and puts …
Record-setting torrential rain in Beijing! Over 500 mm of rainfall in 24 hours! The weather station data has been interrupted, and the rainstorm is still going on! pic.twitter.com/DsSSogcM0D — Jim (@yangyubin1998) July 31, 2023 🚨🇨🇳 Beijing is officially underwater. Time for Taiwan to start the holy war and liberate China. pic.twitter.com/lIEC9PoHd0 — Terror Alarm (@Terror_Alarm) …
The news that the government may be in possession of “nonhuman” biological matter and UFOs was met with surprising apathy online. The announcement spawned a lot of memes, but many of them signaled how disinterested users are with the findings. https://t.co/Lkudu6WlyN — NBC News (@NBCNews) July 29, 2023 Because you're all fucking lying pieces of …
by confoundedinterest17 The Republicans’ little red book is showing people escaping big crime and tax states like New York and California for lower tax, lower crime states like Florida and Texas. But to Democrats who are really bad at math, 7+7 = 0? Most people are already familiar with the mass migration from the Democratic strongholds of …
Let’s see how the levered up AirBNB gamblers are doing pic.twitter.com/DagjVLjfGv — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) July 29, 2023 Housing Bros: Real Estate prices will stay elevated even with rates at 7% Housing Reality: We just slashed our listing price by -50% after listing it for 1 month. God Speed 🫡 pic.twitter.com/dgeDrS0VL6 — The Punisher (of …
CDC detects coronavirus, HIV, hepatitis and herpes at unlicensed California lab The CDC found at least 20 potentially infectious agents at the warehouse in Fresno County. Local and federal authorities spent months investigating a warehouse in Fresno County, California, that they suspect was home to an illegal, unlicensed laboratory full of lab mice, medical waste …
by confoundedinterest17 Commercial real estate (CRE), particularly office space, reminds me of the Arthur Brown tune “Fire!” except that Jerome Powell of The Federal Reserve is the God of Hellfire! While fighting inflation caused by … The Federal Reserve and insane Federal spending (aka, Bidenomics). Call this the Over, Under, Sideways Down economy. The top 1% are doing quite …
Next week will be interesting because many charts are indicating market weakness which lines up with week 21. https://t.co/ggQXxGybX0 pic.twitter.com/U2aMp07RLv — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 29, 2023 Here's an interesting chart. Volatility spikes have been occurring on the same weekly intervals the last two cycles. Weeks 8 & 17 are common across both, implying a large …
From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group After the most recent FOMC meeting, Chairman Powell issued an official statement explaining the decision to raise interest rates another quarter-point. That brings the Federal target funding rate to 5.25-5.5%, the highest rate in over two decades. (Granted, those were two decades of perpetual emergency, the lowest-for-longest rates in U.S. history.) …
by DesmondMilesDant This is concerning for bondholders. Stock holders love real GDP going higher. Inflation running above 4% is bad for both though.