by Michael
We shouldn’t read too much into the early voting results, but the numbers that we have gotten so far are so different from what we witnessed in 2020 that they are impossible to ignore. Four years ago, Democrats completely and utterly dominated the early voting period, and many of the experts expected the same thing to happen again in 2024. But that isn’t what we are seeing. Instead, early voting for the Democrats is down, and early voting for the Republicans is way up. More than 51 million people have already voted, and the data that we have about those votes is quite startling.
For example, just look at what is happening in North Carolina. For the first time ever, Republicans actually have a lead during the early voting period…
More than 3 million people have already voted in early voting in North Carolina, which can be done via mail-in absentee ballot or via in-person locations around the state. Republicans, interestingly, for the first time ever actually lead the early vote–North Carolina provides the partisan breakdown and demographic data on early voters in the state–something they have done now for more than a week. This remarkably consistent GOP lead has shocked political observers, and comes as demographic data also suggests Democrats face serious issues in competing at the top of the ticket in the state. Black voter turnout is down approximately 3 percent from 2020, and about 1 percent more men than women, as compared with 2020, are voting in the state.
This wasn’t supposed to happen.
Democrats were supposed to build a lead during early voting that the Republicans would try to chase down on Election Day.
And many had been anticipating that turnout in the areas of North Carolina that were absolutely devastated by Hurricane Helene would be way down during the early voting period, but instead turnout is actually up…
A record-breaking 2.8 million people in North Carolina have cast early ballots – with tens of thousands of those votes coming out of the storm-ravaged west.
As of last week, voters in the 25 counties in the FEMA-designated disaster area submitted 0.5 percent more ballots than they had in 2020.
One couple that lives in a part of the state that was hit really hard by Hurricane Helene said that they would “crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump”…
While traveling through the state earlier this month, I was told by Victoria and William McKinley from weather-beaten Beech Mountain in Avery County that they would ‘crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump.’
That’s what we pollsters call ‘voter intensity’, a possible indication of a Silent Majority stirred to action.
I just looked up the latest early voting numbers from North Carolina, and at this stage Republicans have a lead of more than 30,000 votes…
Democrat 1,024,379 33.0 %
Republican 1,059,073 34.1 %
It looks like the Democrats will have to try to come from behind on Election Day, and that may be impossible to do.
That may explain why the Harris campaign has decided to cancel 1.7 million dollars in ads in the state…
Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris is waving the white flag in North Carolina, surrendering the state to former President Donald Trump as her campaign withdraws nearly $2 million in planned ad buys from television stations statewide one week before the election.
The more than $1.7 million in canceled ad buys by Harris’s campaign in North Carolina suggests that her team believes, given polling data and early vote data, that the Tar Heel State is no longer in play for her.
Meanwhile, Republicans actually expanded their unprecedented lead in the state of Nevada on Monday…
Monday’s numbers gave another large boost to Republicans, increasing their statewide ballot lead over Democrats to 40,000, or 5.7 percent. This has never happened, not even close, in The Reid Machine Era.
700,000 ballots have now been posted, so at least half the vote is in, perhaps a little more. And some trends seem to be embedded after 10 of 14 days. Note: The Tuesday of the second week also has traditionally been a good day for Republicans in in-person early voting. Monday’s followed the 2020 pattern , with a GOP+4,000 result (actually slightly better than 2020).
And in Arizona, Republicans have built up a 7 point lead in ballots cast during early voting…
In Arizona, it’s even bleaker for Democrats.
Republicans returned nearly 42 percent of the statewide early ballots by Monday, compared to just over 35 percent from Democrats and 23 percent from independents.
This represents nearly a 9-point swing in the GOP’s favor from the 2020 election.
I don’t see any way that the Harris campaign can make up that deficit.
The Sun Belt swing states are slipping away, and so Harris needs to focus on a northern strategy.
At this point, Harris is going to have to sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin and then hold on to New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota and Colorado.
Yes, I know that nobody is really talking about Colorado, but I think that it is actually in play.
In fact, I think that a lot of blue states will be a lot closer than most people think.
The Trump campaign clearly has the momentum at this point, and this is being reflected in the betting markets…
Kamala Harris’ chances of winning the election have reached a new low in the betting markets.
The Democratic nominee has dropped below 40 percent in all six betting markets monitored by Real Clear Politics.
The markets include Polymarket and BetOnline.
All sorts of pundits are saying all sorts of things about why the Harris campaign is doing poorly.
But ultimately it is very simple.
When the economy is doing well, the incumbent party tends to do well.
And when the economy is doing poorly, the incumbent party tends to do poorly.
Needless to say, the economy is doing very poorly right now.
It is going to take something extremely, extremely unusual for Kamala Harris to win this election.
But we still have about a week to go until Election Day, and so there is plenty of time for more surprises.
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