I don’t know the answer, but Trump appointments, Tea Party and Freedom Caucus hypocrites, and the bond market are in the spotlight.
I am sticking with my forecast of 222-213 House edge in favor of Republicans.
222 would be up one from their current 221-214.
For discussion, please see 17 Undeclared House Seats, How Will They Break?
It’s now 16 undecided. My estimate did not change.
Vacancies Matter
Trump called on GOP Reps. Elise Stefanik (NY-21) for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and Michael Waltz (FL-06) national security adviser.
That’s could be a smaller majority than the current very unworkable majority.
The difference this time is Republicans have control of the Senate and Trump is in the White House.
Regardless, appointing House members to the Cabinet makes little sense when the majority is this tenuous.
Tough Math in the House
The Wall Street Journal reports Republican Euphoria Punctured by Tough Math in the House
House Republicans on the verge of clinching a majority in the next Congress are already taking a victory lap, but their expected slim margin and unruly nature could undercut their efforts to pass President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Party leaders, still bruised from infighting over the past two years that led to the ouster of the GOP speaker and embarrassing failed votes, say things will be different this time. The squabbles were exacerbated by the party’s historically small majority this Congress—now at 220 to 212 with three vacancies—and leaders now are bracing for a similarly narrow advantage next year.
With Democrats expected to be largely united against the Trump agenda, any number of issues could trip up the majority, ranging from spending cuts, to raising the debt limit, to ending the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions.
In June, Trump put one of the House’s most defiant lawmakers on notice. In a private meeting with House Republicans, Trump spotted Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.) and asked whether she was “being nice” to Johnson. Greene had unsuccessfully tried to oust Johnson after he supported a $95 billion foreign-aid package that included money for Ukraine.
“Be nice to him,” Trump instructed her, according to Greene, who detailed the interaction in a CNN interview.
Trump’s Wish List
- No tax on tips
- No tax on Social Security
- Renewal of State and Local Tax deductions
- Paying caregivers for taking care of the elderly
- Credits for first-time homebuyers
- Extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)
- Strengthen the military.
How Do We Pay for Those Things?
The Committee for a Responsible Budget estimates those items will add over $7 trillion to the deficit.
Anyone who thinks taxing imports will pay for that is a delusional TDS Type II believer.
How Many House Hypocrites Will There Be?
Let’s see how may Tea Party fiscal conservatives there really are now that Republicans are in the White House.
A big flush out of Tea Party hypocrites is coming and/or Trump does not get his wish list.
What’s Ahead for Bonds Yields?
The answer to the “how many hypocrites” question will determine the answer to this key question The Fed Cuts Key Interest Rate by a Quarter-Point, What’s Ahead for Bonds?
My Take: Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are on a collision course with bond market reality in addition to a collision course with each other.