France is not Greece. Saying it is makes people underestimate the problem. Public debt is €3.35 trillion in 2025. That is 114 percent of GDP and could hit 118.4 percent next year. The government ran a €169.6 billion deficit in 2024. That is 5.8 percent of GDP. Public spending takes up 57.1 percent of the economy. These are huge numbers. There is no easy bailout like Greece had.
Investors are already worried. Fitch downgraded France’s credit rating to A plus, the lowest ever from a major agency. Ten-year bond yields are at 3.47 percent. That is higher than Greece and close to Italy. The market is seeing risks that most headlines ignore.
France is not Greece. 🇫🇷 is running a broadly balanced current account. Greece ran large current account deficits (imports > exports) in the run-up to the Greek crisis, then suffered a sudden stop of capital inflows during the financial crisis. Btw 🇬🇷is back to large CA deficits. pic.twitter.com/Cv7TUEk5Lc
— Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) September 15, 2025
France’s economy is rigid. Subsidies, labor protections, guaranteed spending. These things lock in costs. They make it harder to adjust when shocks hit. Greece had big deficits too, but it reformed and got help. France is not doing that. Its obligations are massive in real terms.
When trouble comes, it will be bigger than Greece’s crisis. Debt is high, yields are rising, and the government refuses to cut spending or reform. This is not a distant risk. It is here. France is not Greece. France is worse.