California’s last-resort insurer FAIR is on the brink of bankruptcy.

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In California, the state’s insurer of last resort, known as the FAIR Plan, has become the primary option for homeowners and some businesses when traditional insurance companies refuse coverage. However, the FAIR Plan is now teetering on the brink of financial collapse due to the overwhelming impact of wildfires.

The exposure for the FAIR Plan stands at a staggering $458 billion, with just $700 million in reserves. This alarming gap is even more concerning when you consider that the current damage estimate from recent wildfires is around $52 billion. While not every dollar of that damage falls on FAIR policyholders, a significant portion does.

The concentration of risk is stark. A map from the FAIR Plan’s own website shows that in Pacific Palisades alone, the exposure is about $5.9 billion. This is a huge risk in one area, especially considering we’re only eight days into the new year, and this could just be the beginning of California’s fire season.

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The FAIR Plan’s reinsurance may cover these claims, but it would leave the program on its last legs. Here are some sobering facts:

  • The FAIR Plan was meant to be temporary, not the primary insurance for so many Californians.
  • With wildfires becoming more frequent and destructive, the financial strain on the FAIR Plan is increasing exponentially.
  • The reserves are woefully inadequate compared to the potential claims, exposing a critical vulnerability in the system.

This situation paints a grim picture for property owners who’ve been forced into relying on this insurer of last resort. It’s not just about money—it’s about the future of property insurance in California. If the FAIR Plan collapses, where will property owners turn?

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The data speaks volumes:

  • Exposure: $458 billion, showing just how much is at stake.
  • Reserves: A mere $700 million, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the potential claims.
  • Current wildfire damage estimate: $52 billion, highlighting the immediate financial threat.

These numbers are more than just statistics; they serve as a warning of what could happen without significant changes in how wildfire risk and insurance are managed in California.

Sources:

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/california-fires-expose-a-1-trillion-hole-in-us-home-insurance-20250109-p5l36c

https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/nation/california/2025/01/08/report-puts-southern-california-wildfire-costs-at-52-billion/77553071007/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_FAIR_Plan

https://www.eenews.net/articles/californias-insurer-of-last-resort-is-a-ticking-time-bomb/

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/los-angeles-wildfires-rage-as-homeowners-battle-insurance-crisis-rcna186783

https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/insurers-began-leaving-california-years-before-latest-wildfire/ar-BB1raWDY


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