The volatility index, $VIX, surged 14% today, marking its most significant daily jump since October 13th. This unsettling start comes as oil prices soar, the 10-year note yield approaches 4%, and the Dow experiences a 200+ point drop. Interest rate cut futures, indicating market expectations, have slightly retreated, but still project six cuts in 2024.
The early enthusiasm around the “Fed pivot” may have been premature, with euphoria witnessed in the final weeks of 2023. The S&P 500, which tripled gains in the first 10 months of 2023, saw profit-taking in the first days of 2024. The market, known for its unpredictability, seems set for a turbulent ride this year, emphasizing the potential for more ups and downs. Welcome to 2024, where the last quarter’s “great” performance is just a prelude to a potentially more volatile market ahead.
The volatility index, $VIX, is up 14% to kick off the first trading day of 2024.
This puts the $VIX on track for its biggest daily jump since October 13th.
All as oil prices jump, the 10-year note yield nears 4% again and the Dow is down 200+ points.
Interest rate cut futures… pic.twitter.com/LXEWMuGdAF
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 2, 2024
Futures are getting REKT.
Happy New Year! 💀☠️ pic.twitter.com/OLG8WjCplm
— QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) January 2, 2024
Here's a domestic net liquidity snapshot for the past five years in year-over-year change terms.
Liquidity is always important, but the reason it's been particularly important for the past four years is because its swings have been huge. pic.twitter.com/KTZFVyA1pA
— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) January 1, 2024
Gold, Silver, Sh*tcoin goin up!