Buckle up for 2024; early 14% VIX surge hints at a bumpy ride after historic 2023 highs.

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The volatility index, $VIX, surged 14% today, marking its most significant daily jump since October 13th. This unsettling start comes as oil prices soar, the 10-year note yield approaches 4%, and the Dow experiences a 200+ point drop. Interest rate cut futures, indicating market expectations, have slightly retreated, but still project six cuts in 2024.

The early enthusiasm around the “Fed pivot” may have been premature, with euphoria witnessed in the final weeks of 2023. The S&P 500, which tripled gains in the first 10 months of 2023, saw profit-taking in the first days of 2024. The market, known for its unpredictability, seems set for a turbulent ride this year, emphasizing the potential for more ups and downs. Welcome to 2024, where the last quarter’s “great” performance is just a prelude to a potentially more volatile market ahead.



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