China's effort to decouple from the US shows in its BoP. In the old days, the current account surplus (black) meant reserve accumulation (red), which meant buying US Treasuries. That's over. China now channels the c/a surplus into direct investment and portfolio outflows… pic.twitter.com/CiNN7aRJq4
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) May 11, 2024
In the age-old dance of global economic power, few spectacles rival the spectacle of a superpower flexing its muscles. Today, my friends, I bring to you a tale of such magnitude—a tale of China’s audacious bid to decouple from the gravitational pull of the United States.
Cast your gaze upon the balance of payments (BoP), that hallowed ground where nations jostle for supremacy. In the old days, a current account surplus for China meant one thing: reserve accumulation, symbolized by the red tide of US Treasuries flooding its coffers. But those days are gone, replaced by a new paradigm where China channels its surplus into direct investment and portfolio outflows, a bold declaration of independence from the American hegemony.
And what better symbol of this seismic shift than the startling chart before us: China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), a titan rising from the ashes of the old order. With a staggering business volume of CNY 123 trillion (~$17 trillion) in 2023, CIPS stands as a testament to China’s ambition—a rival to SWIFT, the traditional gatekeeper of global financial transactions.
But here’s the kicker: CIPS data are often overlooked in the analyses we see, overshadowed by the dominance of SWIFT. Yet, buried within these numbers lies a truth worth heeding—a truth that speaks volumes about the tectonic shifts reshaping the global economic landscape.
But that’s not all. Behold, another marvel in the making: China’s gold trading volumes, soaring to unprecedented heights. With the Central Bank leading the charge, rapidly accumulating gold reserves, the precious metal shines brighter than ever as a beacon of stability in a world beset by uncertainty.
These developments, my friends, are more than mere blips on the radar. They are harbingers of a new era—a world where economic powerhouses vie for supremacy, where old alliances crumble and new alliances rise.
Surprising chart of the day: China's CIPS (SWIFT competitor) did CNY 123 trillion (~$17 trillion) in business volume in 2023.
CIPS data are generally not included in any USD share of transactions analyses we see (it's normally all SWIFT.) pic.twitter.com/KivmgpFNaW
— Luke Gromen (@LukeGromen) May 12, 2024
This is a trend worth keeping an eye on
China’s Gold trading volumes have seen a BIG spike
Moreover, their Central Bank has been rapidly accumulating Gold
These are very positive developments for the precious metal pic.twitter.com/yeOOepE25a
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 12, 2024