In the swirling currents of global economics, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stands as a bastion of stability, its interventions crucial in maintaining the delicate balance of the yen’s value. But behind this facade of stability lies a brewing storm that threatens to engulf not just Japan but reverberate throughout the world, particularly in the realm of US tech.
The BoJ’s efforts to stabilize the yen are not merely a matter of national interest; they are a lifeline for US tech companies reliant on the cheap yen through the carry trade. The yen’s weakness has fueled a surge of investment into US tech firms, providing them with a steady stream of capital and bolstering their valuations.
However, should the BoJ succeed in its intervention efforts, the consequences for US tech could be catastrophic. A stronger yen would abruptly end the era of cheap financing, triggering a mass exodus of capital from US tech stocks. Investors, wary of diminishing returns, would flee en masse, leaving a trail of plummeting stock prices and shattered valuations in their wake.
At the heart of this potential crisis lies the collapse of the carry trade. This financial strategy, which involves borrowing in low-interest-rate currencies like the yen and investing in higher-yielding assets elsewhere, has been instrumental in fueling the growth of US tech companies. However, the success of BoJ’s intervention would mark the end of the carry trade, spelling doom for US tech as liquidity drains from the market and investors retreat to safer havens.
Yet, perhaps the most ominous harbinger of doom lies in the fate of tech behemoths like SoftBank. Laden with massive debt burdens, these giants teeter on the brink of collapse, their fortunes intricately intertwined with the fate of the yen. Should the BoJ’s efforts succeed, the repercussions would be felt far and wide, sending shockwaves through financial markets and beyond.
In this crucible of uncertainty, the fate of US tech hangs in the balance. Will the BoJ’s intervention be a stabilizing force or a harbinger of impending disaster? As the world watches with bated breath, one thing remains certain: the storm clouds of economic turmoil gather ominously on the horizon, casting a pall over the future of US tech.
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#recession … #Tech Bubble 2.0 edition #fx #forex $JPY $USDJPY 💴 😬 👇 t.co/q3mQXkJ8hB pic.twitter.com/HQXpd3J2oB
— Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) May 2, 2024
Having decided to intervene, if the BoJ fails, the consequences would be fatal for the currency, relegating Japan to the same state as Turkey, Zimbabwe, and the like. Not a very good outcome.
They cannot afford to fail. Other developed market central bankers will ensure they do…
— Kashyap Sriram (@kashyap286) May 2, 2024
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We're one hot jobs report away from AI Tech going bidless. pic.twitter.com/XitmaCsddC
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 2, 2024
Here is where it gets interesting:
Last Thursday, Meta had imploded overnight, GDP ran hot, the futures imploded -60 at the open (blue arrow). I said if the lows break, the coming week would be a bloodbath. Of course that was the bottom. MSFT and Googl soared on earnings, PCE… pic.twitter.com/ObVU5b3cmb
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) May 2, 2024
"During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s' the US tech stocks rallied more than 1050% in just five years and subsequently fell more than 80% in more than two years."
Are the US tech stocks overvalued or in a bubble again?
Find out below👇t.co/gtsrN0nLP7
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 2, 2024
$AAPL blowing $110 billion of cash on additional buybacks is quite suspect/desperate…what are they compensating for? Lack of innovation? Weakness in China? 10% drop in iPhone sales and wearables sales? Failed auto project? Being late to AI?
– 2Q EPS $1.53, EST. $1.50
– 2Q REV.… pic.twitter.com/rhZAduV1eg— Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) May 2, 2024