Bank of Canada forecasts mortgage crisis, defaults set to skyrocket


The Canadian housing market is heading toward a crisis, and the numbers are impossible to ignore. The Bank of Canada is forecasting a surge in mortgage defaults, warning that delinquency rates could reach levels comparable to the 1990s recession. The central bank’s projections are conservative, meaning the actual number of defaults could be significantly higher than what officials are publicly acknowledging.

The warning comes at a time when one million fixed-rate mortgages are set to renew in 2025, forcing homeowners to transition from historically low interest rates to much higher payments. The impact is already being felt—mortgage balances past due have climbed 43 percent year-over-year, and the rate of mortgages overdue by 90+ days has jumped from 0.14 percent in 2023 to 0.20 percent in 2024.

Sources:

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/

https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/03/mortgage-market-braces-for-impact-as-one-million-renewals-loom-and-defaults-climb/

https://www.reic.ca/article-feb7-2025.html