Austin’s housing market isn’t just cooling—it’s unraveling. The city that once couldn’t build fast enough is now drowning in inventory as thousands pack up and leave. Prices have collapsed nearly 20% in just over two years, and there’s no sign the bleeding will stop anytime soon.
Nick Gerli pointed out that the migration trend in Austin has taken a sharp dive. In 2020, the city was adding 14,000 new residents a year, fueling a frenzied real estate market. Now, it’s the opposite. A net 13,500 people left in 2024, marking the sharpest decline in the city’s history. That’s a nearly 28,000-person swing in just four years. The result? A flood of unsold homes and landlords desperate to find tenants.
Housing inventory in Travis County is now 30% above pre-pandemic levels, with over 4,000 homes sitting on the market. Sellers are slashing prices to keep up, but buyers aren’t biting. Williamson and Hays Counties, once seen as safe bets for suburban expansion, are feeling the pain too—prices have cratered 19.5% and 19.3% respectively.
Austin’s days of easy money are over. The warning signs were there in mid-2022 when inventory levels started climbing. Now, price cuts are routine, and homes sit on the market far longer than before. Reventure’s home price forecast gives Austin a dismal 32/100 rating, signaling that prices will likely keep dropping for another year or more.
The real question is: when does it stop? Data shows home values in Travis County are now just 6.4% overvalued, meaning the market could be heading toward something resembling affordability. But with supply still surging and buyers reluctant to step in, Austin could be in for another year or two of falling prices before demand stabilizes.
For now, the freefall continues.
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