Are we in a late-stage bubble on software/big tech like Feb/March 2000?

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by spacebizzle

Million dollar question. Wall street bulls love these pseudo plans of further down-the-line growth stories to pump hype stocks. It wasn’t any different in 1998/99 with the promise of the internet, online retail, telcom and routing hardware, etc. The promise that it would take over everything (it did but leaving probably 95% of companies in the dust along the way).

We don’t know what AI will bring but as of now what is the plan for monetization? Increased efficiency, cutting costs? Where is the competitive edge if every big tech company has their own version?

To me this feels like late-stage bubble on software/tech, the Fed started it in 2020 with the money injection, Nov 2021 was peak euphoria just like 1999, and this could be a second rebound before a big drop, similar to early 2000? It took 5 years to unwind the Dot com bubble, from 1995-2000 so it certainly could keep running but a lot of money has already been sucked out, we’ve already seen a lot of stuff burn, pretty much any IPO or meme stock from 2021 has cratered.

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Now the market is riding the big boys but NVDA p/s is > 40. Eventually money always talks and the market needs results not hype. Nothing in the history of the market can sustain that level long-term.

The second half of the year might get interesting.

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