The pandemic stimulus may be long gone, but its impact is still fading from the system, and the cracks are finally showing. While Trump’s tariffs and fiscal policies dominate the headlines, the real story is what’s happening in hard data. The tail end of pandemic-era spending is wearing off, and next week’s payroll report will make that clear.
The retail and construction sectors are set to take the biggest hit. Hiring in both industries is shrinking fast, and that’s just the beginning. But the real recession signal? The collapse in working hours.
Americans are working less now than they did at the height of the 2020 crisis. The average weekly hours worked just dropped to 34.1—the lowest since the pandemic shutdown. That’s not a fluke. That’s recessionary.
And look at the unemployment rate. It jumped from 3.8% to 4.4% in January, the second-highest level in over three years. Normally, January sees strong seasonal job gains. Not this time.
GDP is already showing signs of contraction—it fell -1.5% last quarter. The writing is on the wall. The economy is slowing, the labor market is weakening, and the stock market is about to wake up to reality.
Buckle up. This is only the start.
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