After the explosion of administrative bloat, the decline in public school enrollment is going to be brutal.

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The article from RealClearWire by Bill King accurately highlights several key points about the decline in U.S. public school enrollment:

  • Historical Growth and Peak: Public school enrollment nearly doubled in the second half of the 20th century, peaking at 50.8 million in 2019.
  • Pandemic Impact: During the COVID-19 pandemic, about 1.5 million children were pulled out of public schools, and many have not returned.
  • Charter Schools: The growth of charter schools has significantly impacted traditional public school enrollment. If charter school students are excluded, traditional public school enrollment peaked in 2012 and has since declined by 5%.
  • Declining Birth Rates: The U.S. fertility rate has dropped to 1.76, below the replacement level of 2.1, contributing to fewer school-age children.
  • Homeschooling: The number of homeschooled children has tripled over the last two decades, moving from 2% to 5% of the school-age population.
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Sources:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/08/31/us_public_school_enrollment_peaked_151542.html

https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372

https://www.campussafetymagazine.com/news/public-school-enrollment-decline-why-students-are-leaving/122644/