We are dancing the Grizzly Bear with jobs reports.
The more truthful ADP report is out and it shows a wimpy 1.3% YoY addition in jobs. So much for a dynamic, growing economy under Biden/Harris. The Covid era Federal spending has run out of steam.
Against expectations of adding 145k jobs (a slight improvement over July’s 122k), ADP’s Employment report printed a dismal +99k for August – the weakest print since January 2021 (and July’s +122k was revised down to +111k)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is also the fifth straight monthly decline in the ADP employment report’s jobs additions.
The highest-paying jobs segments including Manufacturing and Professional Services saw the largest job declines…
This was the weakest Services job growth since March 2023 as Manufacturing job growth also slowed…
“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.”
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, ADP has underestimated the official BLS data for 10 of the last 12 months…
Source: Bloomberg
So jobs growth weak (great news for the doves) but wage growth has stopped is disinflatinary trend (not a great picture).
Then we had that awful JOLTS report.
Under Biden/Harris inflation, …
