In a clash of opposing forces, the U.S. housing market finds itself embroiled in a fierce battle. On one side, deteriorated affordability resulting from a spike in mortgage rates from 3% to over 6% in 2022, just after national home prices surged by more than 40% during the Pandemic Housing Boom, is exerting downward pressure on home prices. On the other side, the scarcity of existing inventory, exacerbated by the so-called “lock-in effect,” as many homeowners are reluctant to sell and buy anew, fearing the trade-off from a 2% or 3% mortgage rate to one in the 6% to 7% range, is exerting upward pressure on home prices.
Housing economists say neither force should be ignored.
The surge in mortgage rates in 2022 caught many prospective buyers off guard, diminishing their purchasing power and making homeownership less affordable. With mortgage rates doubling in such a short period, housing affordability (or better put the lack of affordability) as tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached levels unseen since the height of the bubble in 2006. That affordability crunch translated into a home price correction last fall, which packed its biggest punch in overheated Southwest and West Coast markets. That affordability crisis continues to leave many potential buyers on the sidelines, thwarting demand and leading to a slowdown in home sales.
Simultaneously, the housing market is being strained by a lack of available inventory. The lock-in effect, a term used to describe homeowners’ hesitance to sell their properties due to the fear of higher mortgage rates, has resulted in a dearth of existing homes on the market. Homeowners, enjoying historically low interest rates, are reluctant to relinquish their favorable financing terms, creating a bottleneck in the housing supply. According to Realtor.com, there were 26.2% fewer homes listed for sale in June 2023 than in June 2022, and 28.9% fewer than in June 2019. This limited inventory has fueled competition among buyers, and caused home prices to rise in the first half of the year—the seasonally strong part of the year—in most markets.
fortune.com/2023/07/16/housing-market-fight-deteriorated-affordability-against-low-inventory/