HODL loans fuel speculation, destabilize Bitcoin, and create a ticking financial time bomb.

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HODL loans, marketed as a solution for Bitcoin holders to access liquidity without selling their assets, are a dangerous breeding ground for rampant speculation. By using Bitcoin as collateral for fiat loans, borrowers may feel they’re hedging against inflation or currency devaluation, but in reality, they’re only amplifying risks that could ultimately destabilize both digital and traditional financial systems.

The concept of Bitcoin-backed lending, promoted by firms like NYDIG, is nothing more than a speculative cycle that fuels dangerous behavior. By keeping Bitcoin off the market, these loans artificially reduce supply, leading to price inflation driven by demand. This creates a self-perpetuating loop: borrowers take out loans to buy more Bitcoin, further driving up its price and creating an unsustainable bubble.

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This speculative frenzy has serious consequences. As more investors turn to Bitcoin-backed loans, the value of Bitcoin becomes increasingly decoupled from any real-world utility or economic foundation. The more its price inflates, the more precarious the entire system becomes. It’s not just a bubble—it’s a financial time bomb.

Statistics show the growing threat. The total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, which includes Bitcoin-backed loans, surged from $21 billion in early 2021 to over $85 billion in 2024. This explosive growth isn’t a sign of financial innovation—it’s a warning. Institutional involvement, like the $50 million syndicated loan issued by Sygnum in 2023, only amplifies the potential for financial instability.

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HODL loans, rather than providing stability, fuel a speculative cycle that risks amplifying the collapse potential of financial markets. They create an artificial demand for Bitcoin, destabilize its value, and expose both borrowers and lenders to catastrophic losses. The cycle of borrowing to buy more Bitcoin and using that Bitcoin to secure more loans only intensifies the volatility and the danger of a sudden collapse. These loans aren’t a solution—they’re a ticking financial time bomb.

Sources:

https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-backed-credit-decentralized-lending/

https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-backed-loans-growth-potential/

https://www.ccn.com/education/crypto/top-bitcoin-institutional-investors/

https://www.nydig.com/research/notes-on-the-etfs

https://www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2024-investor-letter

https://unchained.com/blog/unchained-capital-announces-25m-series-a-led-by-nydig-and-stone-ridge-holdings-group/

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/sponsored/bitcoin-has-no-top-because-fiat-has-no-bottom-understanding-monetary-debasement

https://www.swanbitcoin.com/economics/bitcoin-a-digital-benchmark-for-tracking-fiat-debasement/

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/29/5-reasons-bitcoin-is-headed-higher-whether-you-lik/


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