A 15.5% drop isn’t just a dip—it’s a loud red flag. When the pros step back, it’s a clear warning shot for everyone else.

When the numbers drop that dramatically, it’s hard to ignore the storm brewing on the horizon. The fact that insiders have stopped buying just adds to the unease. You can almost feel the hesitation in the air. These are the people who usually know what’s coming, and when they pull back, it’s a sign that we should be wary, too.

🇺🇸 US Conference Board Leading Economic Index drawdown from peak -15.5%

In #recession territory!

Chart: @LizAnnSonders pic.twitter.com/CuE4llXfqA

— Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) January 24, 2025

S&P 500 corporate insider buying has reached its lowest level.

Perhaps they are the smart money, or maybe this time is different, and they will pivot soon.

What’s your take? pic.twitter.com/sYfWpDOTj7

— Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) January 22, 2025

The Fed's worst nightmare just got worse:

ALL 3 major metrics of inflation in the US are rising and rate HIKES recently became more likely.

Meanwhile, President Trump just said that he will "DEMAND that interest rates drop immediately."

What will the Fed do now?

(a thread)

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 23, 2025

When the Fed "pivoted" in Sept 2024, they noted that the labor market was weakening.

They felt inflation was falling to 2% and the labor market needed support.

Instead, inflation is now rising and the December jobs report CRUSHED expectations.

Unemployment is down to 4.1%. pic.twitter.com/2eZ2GHafKK

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) January 23, 2025