According to Bloomberg data, 10 out of 11 major central banks are expected to slash rates in the second half of this year, the most in 16 years. The list of the 11 countries includes the United States, India, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Norway, the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland, and Japan. As shown in the below chart, 91% of them are projected to cut interest rates in 2H 2024.
In the last 40 years, there was only one occurrence when all 11 were reducing borrowing costs. That was during the midst of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. This time, the only exception is the Bank of Japan which in March raised rates for the first time in 17 years, ending the negative rates era.
globalmarketsinvestor.substack.com/p/the-global-economy-awaits-the-most?r=l7uw3
W/ the slower pace of Treasuries running off the Fed's balance sheet, you have to wonder if $500 billion to $1 trillion at the RRP facility will be the new norm, like the IOR policy was during the previous unprecedented expansion of federal expenditures… pic.twitter.com/r5c5Rh9m7u
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) May 10, 2024
The yield curve has now been inverted for +500 days
The last 3 times this happened was:
1. 2008
2. 1974
3. 1929All ended with more than a 50% market crash
We expect a final rally before recessionary concerns takeover in H2 2024 pic.twitter.com/YpVencwxEY
— Game of Trades (@GameofTrades_) May 10, 2024
US technology stock prices are ~2x larger relative to the S&P 500, the most ever.
Even more than in the Dot-com bubble
However, what do their valuations look like?
Are the US tech stocks in a bubble again?
The full analysis is under the below link👇t.co/KRQ2mT0oVC
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 10, 2024