In the economic arena, a flurry of indicators paints a complex picture. The US personal saving rate sits at a modest 3.2%, reflecting a landscape where consumers navigate a delicate balance between spending and saving. Amidst this, the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Depression loom ominously, offering stark reminders of past economic tumult.
Yet, amidst the uncertainty, consumer spending remains robust. The latest data reveals a surge in Supercore inflation to a staggering 5.5%, its highest since December 2022. Core services, excluding housing, emerge as a critical metric for the Fed, signaling a worrying trend of escalating prices.
Meanwhile, market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with projections of less than 2 rate cuts for the entirety of 2024. However, consecutive months of elevated PCE, PPI, CPI, and Supercore inflation underscore the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
The battle against inflation rages on, with no end in sight. As policymakers grapple with mounting economic pressures, the road ahead remains uncertain, fraught with challenges and tough decisions.
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All while home values decline, nationally. pic.twitter.com/i5A3tiLx97
— Dale (@Dale83041803) April 27, 2024
Bank deposits down big as of April 17, not good for M2, and not good for inflation fight pic.twitter.com/ZR4LTE508A
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) April 27, 2024
On a 3-month annualized basis, Supercore inflation jumped to a whopping 5.5% in March, its highest since December 2022.
Core services less housing inflation is a key metric that the Fed follows, also known as Supercore inflation.
On a 3-month annualized rate it is rising now at… pic.twitter.com/rQ7z9rOLX1
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 27, 2024