We’re teetering on the edge of another recession, and the signs are flashing bright red.

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Let’s start with manufacturing. Profits took a nosedive in Q4, hitting their lowest point since the lockdowns of 2020. And here’s the kicker – most of the supposed increases we’ve seen over the past three years? They’re just numbers on paper, not real gains. Inflation’s biting hard, eroding what those profits can actually buy.

And it’s not just manufacturing feeling the squeeze. The service sector’s stuck in neutral, with the business climate going from bad to worse. Inflation’s rearing its ugly head, while employment and capital spending remain stagnant. It’s starting to feel like stagflation – a nasty combo of stagnating growth and rising prices.

Even retail trade, which seemed to be holding up, isn’t immune. While profits for Q4 are up compared to last year, they’re down from Q4 ’21. Adjusting for inflation paints an even grimmer picture, showing a decline since Q3 ’20. If businesses thought they could ride out the storm by being “greedy,” they’ve got it all wrong.

And here’s a kicker – RV sales, a quirky recession indicator, are showing some worrying trends too. It’s like deja vu to 2008, but this time, it feels even worse.

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So, what’s the verdict? Well, it’s not looking good. All signs point to rough waters ahead, with the possibility of a recession looming large on the horizon. Buckle up, folks – it could be a bumpy ride.

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