Have you ever wondered why finding a house seems tougher than cracking a secret code? Well, hold onto your hats because we’re diving deep into the housing supply mystery today.
So, picture this: you’re scrolling through your favorite news site, sipping on your morning coffee, and what do you see? Headlines screaming about how hiking rates caused the housing supply to plummet. But wait a minute! Is that the whole story? Not quite.
You see, there’s a little thing called accountability that seems to be missing in the national housing analysis. CEOs shouldn’t get a free pass to use news outlets like their own personal loudspeaker. We need the real deal, not some twisted version of the truth.
Let’s break it down. Inventory is up again this week, folks! That’s a whopping +7k week over week and a jaw-dropping +22% year over year. And hey, remember that gap from 2019 and 2020? It’s narrowing down faster than you can say “housewarming party.”
But hold onto your hats because there’s more! Price cuts are soaring, reaching a sky-high 30.9% compared to last year. And guess what? Median list prices are holding steady, just like your grandma’s famous apple pie recipe.
Now, let’s talk about a little thing called “residential employment.” Some say it should have taken a nosedive by now, but hold your horses! Back in 2008, it took a while for the effects to kick in. Real estate moves slower than a snail on a Sunday stroll, folks.
And here’s the kicker: with rental inventory on the rise and evictions hitting record highs in some cities, it’s time to ask the big questions. What happens to all those folks who got mortgages based on rental income? It’s a real head-scratcher.
So, next time you see those flashy headlines, remember to take them with a grain of salt. The housing supply puzzle is complex, but with a little bit of digging, we can uncover the truth together.
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^ note percentage change for RDFN stock ticker in the third image 😂 I'm sure that has nothing to do with this disinformation campaign!
There needs to be more accountability in national housing analysis. CEOs shouldn't get to use news outlets as their personal mouthpieces
— Marcel (@artimidore) March 18, 2024
Price cuts also jumped up by quite a lot, 30.5% to 30.9%. Now well above last year. Median list price remained at 1.01% YoY, same as last week (which was down from the prior weeks)t.co/ZrVwpqdqWy pic.twitter.com/ua2cn0xZEh
— Marcel (@artimidore) March 18, 2024
Be careful with claims that we could only be in a down cycle if we were seeing its effects already, etc. Real estate and construction don't move that fast. The shift from single-family to multi-family construction since '06 increases lag effects even moret.co/dXKvRsclNb
— Marcel (@artimidore) March 17, 2024
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