As we navigate the current economic landscape, ominous signs are emerging, suggesting a potential shift towards a significant market downturn. While headlines celebrate all-time highs in stocks and the cryptocurrency frenzy, a noticeable chasm exists between soaring market indices and the stark realities faced by individuals on the ground. Job security concerns and the relentless force of inflation challenge the narrative of a robust economic recovery.
Amidst this backdrop, a staggering $5+ trillion sits on the sidelines, ostensibly waiting for the opportune moment. However, this idle capital faces the risk of losing its purchasing power amid illusions of economic opportunity. The potential flood of these trillions back into the economy poses a threat, potentially shifting our current state from a recession to a full-blown depression.
The delicate dance with interest rates further complicates the situation. While lowering interest rates may entice trillions back into the economy, the repercussions could be severe, pushing our quality of life and standard of living deeper into uncertainty. The lowering of interest rates becomes a double-edged sword, shaping the trajectory of our economic future.
Examining market indicators reveals a deviation of the S&P 500 index from its 225-day moving average, reaching rare extremes. This anomaly signals a potential inflection point, hinting at an impending market top. Investors are advised to pay close attention to this indicator, as historical trends suggest that such deviations often precede significant market shifts.
Commercial real estate distress has surged by a staggering 480% over the past year, shedding light on the strain faced by real estate investors and lenders. As interest rates climb, servicing loans becomes more expensive, indicating broader financial stress. This distress serves as a barometer for the economic strain affecting various sectors.
Echoes of economic concerns resonate in the tech sector, where layoffs have outpaced terminations from the previous year. This surge in layoffs, especially in a sector often considered a bellwether, adds complexity to the narrative, prompting a closer examination of the intricate forces shaping our financial reality.
As these warning signs unfurl, investors are urged to tread carefully, reassess their strategies, and remain vigilant. The intersection of economic indicators paints a nuanced picture, signaling the need for a closer examination of the intricate forces shaping our financial future.
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We're in the middle of the crash.
It's an inflationary recession.
Prices crash up, quality of life and standard of living crash down.
That's the problem‼️
— CJK (@CJKonstantinos) March 13, 2024
🇺🇸 S&P 500
The deviation of the S&P 500 index from its 225-day moving average is reaching rare extremes, prompting speculation about the possibility of an approaching market top
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6ph/t @LanceRoberts #sp500 $spx #spx #equities $spy #stocks #stockmarket pic.twitter.com/59Emon7piZ
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) March 13, 2024
Distress in commercial real estate CLO loans surged 480% in last year, per CREDiQ and Bloomberg.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 13, 2024
"loanDepot, which became a public company three years ago, posted a $59.8 million loss for the fourth quarter as originations and revenues continued to suffer in one of the tougher operating environments the industry has seen in quite some time"
-Inside Mortgage Finance pic.twitter.com/WjmVAOlPxk
— Melody Wright (@m3_melody) March 13, 2024
It's 6am and the nesting rooks have woken me. I thought i'd skim though the @dailychartbook to relax me but after seeing this chart i'm not sure i'll be able to get back to sleep! pic.twitter.com/OPy3XBSYae
— Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) March 13, 2024
The 2x levered Nvidia ETF is already down -25% since Friday on liquidation volume. pic.twitter.com/jS6s9oyT1Q
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 12, 2024
When the Dotcom bubble burst it took 13 years for the S&P 500 to break out to a new high. This time it took only two years to make a new high.
Also note that the 50 month moving average was not broken in 2020 nor 2022.
That's how you know something far worse is coming. pic.twitter.com/P1KAe3vvi9
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) March 13, 2024
You're going to need a telescope to find a bear. In Investor's Intelligence updated survey, Bulls rose to 60.9 from 59.4 while Bears are down to just 14.5, the least since March 2018. I consider a 40 pt spread between the two as extreme and now we're at 46.4.
— Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) March 13, 2024
Stocks Rally Despite, Higher Rates and Hotter CPI https://t.co/wLjZ0C8cMX
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) March 12, 2024
The number of tech sector layoffs in 2024 has been outpacing the number of terminations in 2023, per CNBC.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 13, 2024