AirBNB is dying: Revenue declines 50% in Phoenix, Austin; forced selling expected. US housing market faces housing price downside if struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell.

The Airbnb collapse is real.

Revenues are down nearly 50% in cities like Phoenix and Austin.

Watch out for a wave of forced selling from Airbnb owners later this year in the areas hit hardest by the revenue collapse.

1) What's scary for the US Housing Market is just how many Airbnbs there are.

Data from AllTheRooms shows 1 million Airbnb / VRBO rentals.

Compared to only 570k homes for sale.

Creates huge home price downside if struggling Airbnb owners elect to sell. pic.twitter.com/7NPw3EaNAG

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023

3) Another area with huge exposure is Eastern Tennessee.

Particularly a vacation town called Sevierville in the Smokey Mountains.

In this county there's 10x as many Airbnbs as homes listed for sale. While the revenue per owner is down nearly 50%.

Yikes. pic.twitter.com/m4HEdmgUZ1

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023

5) Another area that is getting smoked by the Airbnb Crash is the Pacific Northwest / Mountain Region.

States like Montana, Idaho, and Oregon.

Fewer people playing out their Yellowstone fantasies + way more supply = 40% declines in revenue per listing. pic.twitter.com/3jc1IWemlm

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023

7) What will be interesting is how "stubborn" Airbnb owners are in holding their properties.

Many of them are just now seeing their revenues down 50%.

But the mainstream narrative hasn't caught up to it yet. So owners might not realize the Airbnb crash is a broader trend.

— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) June 27, 2023