In an effort to get Republicans to commit hundreds of billions of dollars for Ukraine and Israel, Biden trots out the Domino Theory. Anyone remember that?
“Don’t Let Putin Win”
Reuters reports Biden Pleads for More Money
President Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh infusion of military aid for Ukraine, warning that a victory for Russia over Ukraine would leave Moscow in position to attack NATO allies and could draw U.S. troops into a war.
Biden spoke as the United States planned to announce $175 million in additional Ukraine aid from its dwindling supply of money for Kyiv. He signaled a willingness to make significant changes to U.S. migration policy along the border with Mexico to try to draw Republican support.
“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said. Putin will attack a NATO ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said.
“We can’t let Putin win,” he said.
Overestimating Putin
Eurointelligence notes we have gone From Complacency to Panic About Putin
Western analysts went straight from complacency to panic in their assessment of Vladimir Putin. When Ukraine pushed back, western commentators went as far as to fantasise about regime change in Russia; now the same commentators are warning that Putin is about to occupy Kiev, and then go on to attack Nato.
This is utter nonsense. We have warned against under-estimating him. Now we warn against over-estimating him. It takes more than a ban on sales of iPhones and Mercedes cars to deprive him of the technology needed to wage war. At the same time, Putin does not have the means, nor is he unlikely to acquire them, to wage war against Nato – not even a Nato with Donald Trump as US leader.
Nato has rightly started to take the defence of its eastern borders more seriously. Finland has just concluded a military deal with the US. So did Sweden. Germany is planning to dispatch an entire brigade to Lithuania. The west is not helpless.
Putin has troops he can burn, but the rate at which he is burning them now is unsustainable for him, both militarily and politically. The unsustainable can be sustained for a period, sometimes a long period, but it ends eventually. We heard of a three-year battle plan into 2026. In the end, he will go along with a truce that would secure him some territory in eastern Ukraine and expose the west’s grandstanding rhetoric. Such an outcome would be perceived in Russia as a political victory for him.
After the war, we would expect his priority to shift towards infrastructure. Russia has a lot to offer given its geographical location at the centre of the Eurasian continent. The most important strategic project for Russia would be the development of the Northern sea route, from the Baring Sea in the east to the North Sea in the west. The melting of the Arctic ice is making this route viable for large transport. But it would require huge investment into port infrastructure along the way. Post-war Eurasia will be a different place.
The Domino Theory Revisited
Younger readers may not even be aware of the Domino Theory. The theory stated we need to fight them “over there” or we would be fighting them here.
The result was US involvement in Vietnam, initially in a limited fashion, but ultimately in a major war, with overall involvement lasting nearly 20 years.
About 8.7 million served during the Vietnam era between 1964-1973, about 3.1 million in Vietnam. 2.2 million people were drafted. 58,279 US military died for nothing and total deaths in North and South Vietnam were about 1.4 million.
The US lost the war, dominos did not fall, and Vietnam is now a trading partner.
The Veterans Breakfast Club has an excellent refresher course on The Domino Theory in Retrospect
The Domino Theory stated simply that Communist victory in one country or region would spark neighboring regions to rise up against pro-American governments, which would lead to more victories and further insurgencies. By keeping the first domino upright—in this case Vietnam—the US could prevent Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even India from succumbing to Communist takeovers.
It’s striking that the biggest proponent of the Domino Theory during the war, Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, later confessed, “I think we were wrong. I do not believe that Vietnam was that important to the communists. I don’t believe that its loss would have lead – it didn’t lead – to Communist control of Asia.”
In retrospect, said McNamara, “we should have begun our withdrawal from South Vietnam [in 1965]. There was a high probability we could have done so on terms no less advantageous than those accepted nearly six years later–without any greater danger to U.S. national security and at much less human, political, and social cost to America and Vietnam.”
In Retrospect
In retrospect, we had no business in Vietnam first place.
In retrospect, I would have spit on McNamara then and would spit in his face now if he was still alive.
In retrospect, US meddling in Ukraine led by John McCain fomented the mess we see today. I strongly advised against US meddling at the time.
In retrospect, US support for Israel, no matter what Israel did, contributed to the setup we have today.
In retrospect, the war in Iraq and the killing of Hussein led to the formation of ISIS. I vehemently opposed US actions at the time.
In retrospect, the US killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi led to ISIS taking over the country.
In retrospect, the US wasted trillions of dollars in Afghanistan, also leaving in defeat. Once again, I said so ahead of time.
Please don’t make a fool of yourself comparing Putin to Hitler, or Mideast events to WWII. Israel has proven it can defend itself. And US support for Israel for decades, no matter what, has at a minimum, increased tensions. This post does not support Hamas which Israel has a right to destroy.
No Change
I was against US meddling in 1966 and have been against meddling ever since. And I have been on the right side of history.
The US cannot afford to be the world’s policeman and the results of trying have backfired every time (assuming perpetual war is not the desired goal).