The economic landscape is marked by several concerning indicators, as evidenced by the S&P 500 margins trending lower, reflecting potential challenges for companies. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reports a deterioration in sales, indicating a worsening scenario for small businesses. Additionally, a growing number of companies are expressing concerns about weak demand, adding to the apprehensions about economic vitality. The yield curve’s persistent inversion further accentuates these worries, raising questions about the overall health and resilience of the economy. Collectively, these signals paint a picture of economic uncertainty and potential challenges on the horizon.
S&P 500 margins est 4Q, 1Q 2023, 2024 pic.twitter.com/P3BnJsmLbi
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 14, 2023
Is it really because of higher rates, or is it more driven by inflation driving affordability and real demand lower? pic.twitter.com/Y2J7JgPQZw
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) November 14, 2023
NFIB's poor sales conditions vs. 2/10 spread pic.twitter.com/v0tE8zOp8a
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 14, 2023
NFIB small business job opening vs. JOLTS pic.twitter.com/E6U70IPDWS
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) November 14, 2023
Yield curve again inverting. Two scenarios:
1) Bear Steepening again: Pain trade
2) Bull Steepening: If labour market weakens considerably, watch out for claims data pic.twitter.com/FoXMzh4DhZ
— The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) November 14, 2023