by Chris Black
Israel needs American support and restraint both from the Arab states and Turkey to prevent regional escalation.
The goal of destroying Hamas is only strategically viable if the Israelis are willing to embrace something approaching a 2-state solution where the more moderate Palestinian Authority which currently governs the West Bank is installed in Gaza, undermining the long-term strategic objectives of the Likud government to deny this and pursue a gradual process of expanding Israeli settlements and ethnically cleansing the Palestinians from their remaining territories.
Israel basically has 3 choices:
Option 1: Aggressive military action that infuriates the Arab world and delegitimizes American support, potentially threatening the very existence of the state of Israel.
Option 2: Limited and protracted military action which imposes major economic costs upon the state of Israel and requires concessions to a 2-state solution which would piss off Netanyahu’s hardcore Zionist base of domestic support.
Option 3: Cuck out from a major military action in Gaza to maintain the current status quo, showing weakness to the world.
Netanyahu has no good options.
A vast Israeli invasion force awaits an order to enter the battle grounds of Gaza. Fifteen days after Hamas’s attack on Israel, that ground invasion has yet to begin. We consider the reasons for the delay: t.co/XWwCpESfJO 👇
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) October 22, 2023