Homebuyer traffic has experienced a significant decline, nearly 40% since the beginning of 2023, reaching levels not seen since the 2020 lockdowns, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 1980s housing crash. What makes the situation intriguing is the recent surge in new home sales, rising by 12.3% in September, defying expectations of a decline, all while mortgage rates have reached 8%.
Median price of new single-family home fell by 12.3% year/year in September, which was worst since GFC and among worst declines on record pic.twitter.com/7xCY4UoGir
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 26, 2023
JUST IN: Homebuyer traffic falls ~40% since the start of 2023 to near 2020 lows, according to Reventure Consulting.
There have only been 3 other times with homebuyer traffic this low:
1. 2020 Lockdowns
2. 2008 Financial Crisis
3. 1980s Housing CrashHere's where it gets… pic.twitter.com/3QtxhtRMnZ
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 26, 2023
Something strange is going on with the Home Builder Sales figures.
New Home Sales have "bounced" back up over the last year, surprising many in the Housing Market.
Yet – Buyer Traffic at home builder sites has collapsed to the lowest level in decades.📉
What's going on? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/i7GXGwXYsI
— Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) October 26, 2023
Housing starts started rolling over 18 months ago. That indicates the labor market needs to follow along accordingly. pic.twitter.com/3KTsdri1P6
— Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) October 26, 2023