The cost of borrowing has increased significantly, and small firms are feeling the heat. Small businesses facing tough times with rising bankruptcies.

It's hard to see a case for interest rate cuts returning anytime soon.

However, we continue to believe that rates will PAUSE for longer.

Inflation to 2% remains the Fed's number one objective right now.

Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 2, 2023

As I've been warning, we are still early in the biggest #bond market crash in U.S. history. Every government, corporation, landlord, and family that has been relying on cheap debt to survive will die. When the #Fed tries to save their lives, it will kill them with #inflation.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 2, 2023

Small Business Bankruptcies Are at a Much Higher Pace Than Any Year Since the COVID Pandemic

Small businesses are increasingly feeling the economic squeeze, with nearly 1,500 Subchapter V bankruptcy filings this year alone. This number is quickly approaching the total for all of 2022, as per data from the American Bankruptcy Institute. Further signs of distress include rising small-business loan delinquencies and a decline in confidence among small-business owners. Over half of the respondents in a survey by Vistage Worldwide believe we are either approaching or are already in a recession.

US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagflation – “Renewed Upward Pressure On Inflation”

US manufacturing data for September shows slight improvement but remains in contraction. A disparity exists between ‘soft’ survey data and more pessimistic ‘hard’ data. Both PMI and ISM indicators suggest manufacturing struggles, with rising inflation and slowing production hinting at ‘Stagflation.’ Concerns for policymakers, including Mr. Powell, intensify.

Coming Soon – Why a US Recession Is Still Likely

Economic indicators suggest the US might be headed for a downturn despite recent optimism. While the summer saw a boost in consumer confidence, looming challenges like an auto strike, the resumption of student loan payments, potential government shutdowns, and increased oil prices could severely affect GDP growth. Bloomberg Economics sees a recession as probable, with factors like dwindling pandemic savings, rising interest rates, and a tightening credit market amplifying concerns. Despite some positive signs, historical patterns and emerging economic pressures signal that complacency may be misplaced, and a downturn is closer than many anticipate.