The US bond-market selloff resumed Monday, driving 10-year yields to a 16-year high, as the persistently resilient economy has investors positioning for interest rates to remain elevated even after the Federal Reserve winds up its hikes.
The moves pushed up yields on typical Treasuries as well as those that provide extra payouts to cover inflation, signaling that investors are bracing for the risk that monetary policy will remain elevated.
The yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasuries on Monday pushed over 2% for the first time since 2009, extending its ascent from year-to-date lows near 1%. Not long after, the yield on 10-year Treasuries without that protection surpassed October’s peak, climbing as much as 9 basis points to 4.35%, a level last seen in late 2007.
The jump extends the major shift that has raced through the bond market over the past two weeks as the odds of a recession recede and large federal budget deficits increase the supply of Treasury debt. That’s driven investors to sharply push up rates on longer-term debt, which had tumbled deeply below short-term ones on fears that the economy was poised for a contraction.
$1 Trillion of Debt to Face ‘Day of Reckoning’: Bank of America
The scariest chart; liquidity issues in Treasuries pic.twitter.com/kZxn6AAnnD
— Global_Macro (@Marcomadness2) August 20, 2023
In a nutshell:
“Given the high level of govt debt in the US and elsewehere, investors are demanding higher compensation for the risk.”#GlobalBonds https://t.co/nOux4Br3Ih
— Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) August 21, 2023
According to Zerohedge, the "window" is closing for a sell-off.https://t.co/vcz8OgmCAh
I suggest that is not true.
The casino will either crash before Powell speaks or after Powell speaks.
Those are bulls' choices. pic.twitter.com/6DrTY6PKE6
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 21, 2023
The steepner alarm bells should be going off right about now pic.twitter.com/xtHBZyKoqq
— Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) August 21, 2023
MAJORITY OF SMALL BUSINESSES BELIEVE US IS IN RECESSION
— FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) August 21, 2023