12Z GFS has a surface low forming near Panama in 120 hrs
It is generally accepted that if anything shows under 144 hrs, its likely to be real.
At this point, has it traveling north over Cuba and slamming the Florida Gulf coast.
www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2023081812&fh=6
I am sure track and intensity will vary on future runs as the models hone in on this.
Stay tuned.
Meanwhile, the 12z GFS forms a storm in the south Caribbean Sea and brings it north towards South Florida and the Keys. pic.twitter.com/gOYrxx3W4b
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 18, 2023
It ends up going northwest and makes a direct hit on Tampa Bay.
Note this is just one model run and not a forecast! pic.twitter.com/9gsINATbGH
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 18, 2023
Full track of the 12z GFS pic.twitter.com/SSLPJKwk6T
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 18, 2023
Fantasyland on the 18z GFS, but it still manages to bring a hurricane to the Florida Keys for Labor Day weekend (after first visiting just about every island in the Caribbean). pic.twitter.com/VVGW8f4K3a
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 18, 2023
h/t DOORBERT