via bnnbloomberg.ca
‘We’re not getting out of this without a recession’: David Rosenberg Iva Poshnjari, BNN Bloomberg
U.S. equity market strength is deceiving experts into believing we’ve dodged a recession, one prominent economist is warning.
The S&P 500 was up roughly 15 per cent year to date as of Thursday, while a selloff continued throughout the world bond markets.
This overall strength in U.S. equities is painting a misleading picture as to where the global economy is heading, especially with the Chinese market indicating signs of a slowdown, David Rosenberg, president, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, told BNN Bloomberg in a TV interview on Thursday.
“People, analysts, economists, strategists have taken a stock market rally and fit in the narrative ‘there’s not going to be a recession.’ Everybody is throwing in their recession call,” he said.
Rosenberg argued that the world economy is far from robust and is certainly not in the clear yet when it comes to avoiding an economic contraction.
“The recession has been delayed, it’s not derailed,” he warned.
On average, a recession takes two years to surface after the first interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, he argued. The Fed’s first rate hike was in March of 2022, meaning a recession is not too far away, Rosenberg said.