The Dragon’s Final Breath

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by timewourp

Quickly Analyzing the Impending Chinese Economic Collapse

Hey y’all, gather ’round as we delve into the potential pitfalls of the colossal Chinese economy. Grab your popcorn and your puts, because we’re about to expose the red dragon’s Achilles’ heel.

  1. Demographic Disaster: China’s “one-child policy” fallout is STILL haunting them like a ghost in an empty casino. With a population set to plummet, the workforce will inevitably shrink, affecting productivity and consumption. The Tik-Tok-farmed Gen Z ain’t going to save the day, and fewer hands on deck would irreparably damage their GDP.
  2. Inflated Census Data: China’s knack for “creative accounting” isn’t limited to their balance sheets. Suspicion has long surrounded the accuracy of their already underwhelming census data. If their population figures are as trustworthy as a lottery scratcher from a shady convenience store, their economic indicators might be equally questionable. A financial house of cards, perhaps?
  3. The Red Gerontocracy: The Politburo ain’t getting any younger, and neither is their grip on power. As geriatric leaders struggle with technology (beyond censoring the web), a generational disconnect will further hinder policy agility. A rapidly changing world needs swift decision-making, not political debates over who can work the photocopier. Xi is going down with the ship, the question is how loyal will the over 90% Han Chinese population be to their failed leader?
  4. Overreliance on Exports: China’s economy is a global hentai octopus, its tentacles stretching deep moan into every corner of the Earth. But what happens when the world stops buying? With trade tensions and diversification efforts continually rising, China’s export-heavy model might be as outdated as Usher.
  5. Housing Bubble: China’s obsession with ghost cities would make Scooby-Doo proud. A housing bubble looms larger than a parade float, with unoccupied urban landscapes begging for tenants. When the music stops, will there be enough chairs for China’s real estate speculators? How long can the Chinese government keep the market propped up?
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TLDR: China is going kaput.

Related:

Chinese Exports Fall at Steepest Pace Since February 2020.

China’s exports to the rest of the world tumbled in July, adding to the challenges for the world’s second-largest economy and offering fresh evidence that a drying up of Western demand is hurting Beijing’s attempts to rekindle growth.

After a short-lived rebound in the spring, goods exports from China resumed a long-term slide that dates to October last year, when consumers in Western developed countries began shifting their spending away from buying furniture and electronic gadgets, and instead diverted it toward services such as entertainment and dining out.

Worsening geopolitical tensions between Beijing and the U.S.-led West have also prompted some Western manufacturers to reduce their reliance on China’s supply chain, which in turn is expected to erode trade ties between the two sides.
…
Compared with those of a year earlier, China’s exports to the U.S. and European Union plunged by more than 20% each last month. There was a lone bright spot: Chinese shipments to Russia soared in July, calculations from the customs data show.

China’s trade slumps, threatening recovery prospects. “Most measures of export orders point to a much greater decline in foreign demand than has so far been reflected in the customs data”

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The property crisis in China is spreading to the wider economy